The accumulation of rain associated with the passage of a tropical wave this weekend will not be abundant

The tropical wave with low potential for cyclonic development and that will pass near the island next weekend will increase rain activity over various sectors, but the accumulation of water will not be enough to end the drought, the National Weather Service (SNM) in San Juan.

In the best scenario, highlighted meteorologist David Sánchez, the precipitation could momentarily increase the levels of some reservoirs and replenish the flows of several rivers. However, the accumulation of water that should fall on the island will not be vigorous.

“Between Saturday through Sunday the tropical wave moisture field should be over the region and that should bring more rain than we have seen in the past few days. What is uncertain at the moment is exactly how much rain is going to fall.”, underlined the expert in an interview with The new day.

“It’s going to rain, but it’s not going to be the rain that ends the drought,” he added.

From a climatological point of view and compared to previous years, Sánchez mentioned that when a tropical system (be it a wave or a depression) passes to the south of the region, the accumulations of water are minimal.

At the moment, the preliminary estimates of the SNM for the next 120 hours (which include from today to next Monday) suggest accumulations of between one to one and a half inches of rain, with areas to the west of up to two inches. However, this forecast is based on weather models that are updated every few hours, so the picture could change. In addition, the analysis takes into account the weather conditions at the time the forecast is made, so on Friday there could be a greater consensus among the models.

In his 8:00 am bulletin, the National Hurricane Center (NHC, in English) gave this tropical wave a 10% probability of cyclone development in two days (48 hours) and 30% in the next five days.

The agency stipulated that the disturbance will face weather conditions that will not be favorable for a rapid strengthening, once it enters the Caribbean Sea, for which Puerto Rico would only receive the following impacts: increased rainfall, some gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms and possible deterioration in maritime conditions.

“Regardless of how much rain is going to fall or not, we should have precipitation, with greater probability, for towns in the east and southeast, which are the ones that need it. Everything will depend on how the forecast evolves and how close the tropical wave passes.Sanchez noted.

Regarding the reasons that have caused the tropical waves to remain weak in recent weeks, the expert indicated that the amount of dry air with dust from the Sahara in the tropical Atlantic has been abundant, so this limits the strengthening of low pressure.

“You have to consider that there is enough dry air and Saharan dust in the tropical Atlantic, and therefore these waves are not in a favorable environment for their strengthening. That always happens in summer. Already at the end of July and beginning of August the panorama changes and we see more tropical waves and some have more opportunity to develop”, he highlighted.

Asked about the long-term forecast, the meteorologist anticipated that another dry air mass with Saharan dust will arrive in the region starting next week, so the island would again experience weather conditions similar to what it has experienced this summer.

“There are other tropical waves that the models anticipate, but they look very weak,” he said.

Meanwhile, Sánchez warned that the maritime conditions are deteriorating and with choppy waves, for which he urged swimmers to exercise caution.

“We have a warning for small boat operators for all waters except the west coast of Puerto Rico. We have winds of up to 25 knots and waves of up to seven feet”, she pointed out.

In addition, there is a high risk of sea currents for the entire north coast of the island.

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