The EU faces the risk of operating with a malfunctioning Franco-German engine | European Elections 2024 | News

The EU has shown that it is perfectly viable without the United Kingdom; but it finds it increasingly difficult to work with the defunct Paris-Berlin axis – the true political and economic driving force of the Union. France and Germany – Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz -, the two greats of the community club, have suffered a heavy blow from the far right in the European elections. …

The EU has shown that it is perfectly viable without the United Kingdom; but it finds it very difficult to function with the depleted Paris-Berlin axis – the true political and economic driving force of the Union. France and Germany – Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz –, the two greats of the Community club, have suffered a heavy blow from the extreme right in the European elections. The rise of ultra forces, which have already established themselves in Italy, threatens to paralyse the heart of the EU. The axis had recently deformed, but it was pulling the bloc along. Now, the threat from right-wingers with a different vision of the European project, which puts the future of the government coalition of Macron and Scholz into uncertainty, not only seriously affects the Community engine, but could also dynamite it. All this is happening at a time when Europe needs radical changes in order not to be left behind.

“It is a crushing blow for Europe that the turn to the right has been felt especially within the Franco-German engine,” admits Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund think tank. “Traditionally France and Germany are considered the driving forces of the EU, and it is certainly significant that Eurosceptics have gained a strong presence in both countries,” the expert concludes. The shift to the right, combined with the weakness of Berlin and Paris, will make it difficult for the EU to achieve objectives such as greater spending on R&D, EU expansion and investment in joint defense projects and the green transition. It will also fuel the desire for a fortress Europe when it comes to migration and weaken support for Ukraine, especially on reconstruction.

The current European integration would not have happened without the joint drive of Berlin and Paris. Now, the weakness of its two economic and demographic giants will be transferred to the community machinery. Marine Le Pen’s far-right has taken over Macron’s party in France. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has established itself as the second force in Germany – despite its scandals – in elections in which Scholz got the worst historical result.

Franco-German engine – which in Paris they call CCouple: The couple—or marriage—has worked well over the years, especially during the pandemic and rescue plans. He got into shouting matches over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, her divergent stances on military support and energy, and her different views on China; but it never stopped. Scholz and Macron don’t have a good relationship, but they get along well with each other. And they share a similar vision of Europe that Le Pen or the Alternative for Germany (AfD) ultras do not.

Beyond the parliamentary arithmetic that guarantees that moderates will get a majority that allows them to oppose, 9-J has broken several taboos on the extreme right, despite Europe’s history. The setback that the Berlin-Paris axis is now suffering, in a scenario of global uncertainty due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Israel’s war in Gaza, pressure from China and the protectionism of the United States, will also be felt throughout the Union. And in a Europe that is watching with great concern the possibility of the return of the populist Donald Trump to the White House.

The European Parliament is gaining powers and prominence, but the basic mechanism of the EU rests between the European Commission and the Council, i.e. the member states meeting together. If these two institutions are aligned, the Union works more smoothly, recalls economist Carlos Martínez Monge, a former senior official of the European Commission, who has held various positions that give him a privileged view of the European institutional framework.

Monge warned of the risk of Macron’s mistake in calling early elections. If Le Pen’s ultra party were to win those elections, the French president could be neutralized. And it would open the door to having ultra ministers in the negotiations of the EU Council, one of the EU’s two legislative bodies. “Extreme right-wing ministers from a country like France would enter Ecofin, the Eurogroup, the Foreign Affairs Council and join those in Italy,” Martinez Monge warned.

Rebecca Christie of the Bruegel Institute also sees France as the most “dangerous” link if Le Pen emerges as the winner of legislative elections at the end of the month. This will be noticeable in immigration policy and industry. On the first issue, he will be joined by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni; on the second, Christie expects more pressure “to distribute more aid to French companies.” “This will make things very difficult,” he admits.

The victory of Le Pen’s party, with a neutral Macron, would trigger a major crisis in the EU. The situation in Germany could be serious, it would be bad for Europe, for NATO and for the policy on Ukraine, but it is temporary, explains Christie. There is a clear European alternative with the Christian Democrat opposition to the CDU in Berlin. On the other hand, the French situation leads us to think about a deeper political problem, in which a party system has been overrun by a professionally pro-European politician, who, in turn, has contributed to the immense weakening of the parties that have done the most to build the institutional building in the EU.

However, there is no shortage of those in Brussels who point out that there is too much consensus on some of the challenges that the Union will have to face in the coming years, so it will be difficult to change that path. For example, the need for Europe to return to the path of competitiveness. “Everyone knows that more money is needed,” say Community sources, who also admit that the most likely route is private money with the impetus of capital markets.

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