The far right got a historic victory in the elections in Austria, but far from majority. international

The far right won parliamentary elections in Austria for the first time this Sunday and did so with its best historical result. According to data from the almost completed investigation, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) is at 28.8%, far from a majority to govern, but ahead of the Christian Democrats (OVP), who lead the executive and are in second place. But withstand strong declines to survive. Place with 26.3%. The Ultra leader, Herbert Kickl, celebrated what he calls the “blue miracle” of the party, while the militants waited for him at a prepared party in Vienna. The conservative Chancellor, Karl Nehammer, embodied the other side of the coin: “The goal I set for myself, to be first, I have not achieved. It’s bitter.” The Social Democrats (SPO) also do not hold their heads up and register their worst ever record with 21.1%; the Liberals of Neos rose slightly to 9.2% and the Greens, now the government’s junior partner, fell to It became 8.3%.

The FPÖ entered the election with the wind in its favor, having been leader in the polls for almost two years and having had its first national victory in European elections last June, a further indication of the weight of far-right structures for Brussels. Is. It took first place with 25.4%, just one point behind the Christian Democrats (OVP), but demonstrating its strength with an eye on key elections in the autumn and Austria, which the union is also looking forward to.

The militants surpassed the results achieved in 1999 by their most charismatic leader, the late Jörg Haider, with whom Kikal had worked on formation, speech and strategy in the last decades of the last century. That year, 26.9% of the vote left the FPÖ in second place and the Conservatives had to be allowed to lead the executive as a third party. Beating that mark was the stated aim of Kickl, 55, who chose the symbolic St Stephen’s Square to kick off his campaign last Friday, as did Haider at the time, whose Nazism-related statements infamously criticized Europe. Had done. Kikal, who claims his heritage, now aspires to become VolkskanzlerPeople’s Chancellor (a word with Nazi resonance).

The FPÖ has recovered from a steep decline in 2019, when corruption suspicions left it at 16.2% and ended the career of its then-leader, Heinz-Christian Strache. This Sunday it has jumped by 13 percentage points.

During the investigation, its leaders appeared willing to “reach out” to the government to reach a consensus. On social networks, congratulations were already pouring in from other ultra parties such as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Vox or Alternative for Germany, while leaders of other Austrian parties once again rejected cooperation with them. Kikal’s FPO has no chance of ruling alone. And the Social Democrats, Greens and liberals have refused to agree with a fundamentally anti-immigration, Eurosceptic and pro-Russian party that has never stopped facing accusations of xenophobia and anti-Semitism.

Chancellor Nehmer (51 years old) has stressed during the campaign that Ultra is a “threat to the country’s security”, but has not completely ruled out a possible coalition with the FPÖ, where he says it is “appropriate”. There are people. De Kikal (55 years old) claims that he makes a living by spreading conspiracy theories and instilling fear in people. “I take the voters seriously, but that doesn’t mean I accept their methods,” he told the FPÖ leader on public television – complaining that he treated his followers like “second-class” voters. behave. Not long ago, the head of the government admitted to conservative radicals that the party had to review why a radical force gets more votes than those who have been a dominant force alongside the social democrats for decades. “We don’t live with problems, we solve them,” Nehmer reiterated to his party, which called for voting for “a strong centre” to avoid radicals. The polls have dealt a strong blow to the conservatives, who lost more than 11 percentage points after reaching 37.5% of the vote in 2019.

The conservative government with the Greens has closed the legislature with low popularity. Nehmer assumed the chancellorship in December 2021 without going to the polls amid a storm of notoriety from the ÖVP following the resignation of the popular Sebastian Kurz, who was investigated by the prosecutor’s office for alleged corruption. Before leading the current government, Nehmer was Minister of the Interior.

As head of the executive with environmentalists, he has dealt with the pandemic, the energy crisis and the hyperinflation and economic recession that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which is now in its second year. Both ruling structures show signs of breakdown. Dissatisfaction over the cost of living and the management of the executive, and concerns about immigration and asylum have worked in the FPÖ’s favor.

Although the Chancellor has assured that he will not accept Kickl as a partner, both parties agree on economic issues and also on the need to tighten immigration and asylum controls, although the Christian Democrats do not reach the point of FPÖ. who want to directly suspend the right to security, even if it fails to comply with international laws, and erect border fences. However, they do not agree on issues such as the war in Ukraine or the EU – the model for the FPÖ leader is Hungarian ultranationalist Viktor Orbán.

Apart from the kickal factor, it will probably be easier for the Conservatives to negotiate a coalition deal with the militants than with other parties. Moreover, they have formed coalition governments in the past as well.

On the other hand, the FPÖ’s first place without Kickel’s resignation could lead the conservatives to an agreement with the Social Democrats (SPO), whose leader, Andreas Bübler (51 years old), discouraged by the results, offered to talk with of. Popular tips to avoid kickal. After the investigation was practically over, the two traditional parties won 92 seats, a bare majority in the parliament of 183 representatives. A compromise with a greater margin would require another party: the liberals of Neos, the only woman at the top of the list, Beate Meinl-Risinger (46 years old), have already offered to try so that there would be no executive with radicals, Or the Greens, although they have not fared too well with the Christian Democrats at the legislature end. Under the leadership of Werner Kogler (62 years old), who also calls for a “wall” against the extreme right, they have fallen by more than five points compared to the 2019 result.

With or without the militants, the ÖVP’s Christian Democrats have a card to remain in government. Another thing would be the stability that Nehmer seeks, with an executive with socialists more difficult, since both structures are far apart and disagree on key points, such as new taxes, which is what most left-wing babblers want. . Conservatives and social democrats have governed together for decades, until former ÖVP leader Sebastian Kurz refused to continue that model and opted for a deal with the extremists in December 2017 that came to an end a year and a half later. Failed due to suspicion of corruption. The so-called radical, Heinz-Christian Strauch ibiza affair,

President’s objections

With the elections over, it is now the turn of the country’s president, former environmental leader Alexander Van der Bellen. The Constitution does not require him to hand over the responsibility of forming the government to the first power, although this has been an unwritten tradition until now. Van der Bellen said last year, when she took up her second term, that she would not want to support a party that was “anti-European and does not condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine.” This was a direct reference to Herbert Kickl, although he did not explicitly say what he would do. The FPÖ leader reacted harshly and called Van der Bellen a “mammy”, “old man” and “comatose”.

This Sunday, the Austrian president appeared to declare that he would do his best to ensure that a government is formed that respects the “fundamental principles” of democracy and the rule of law, membership in the European Union and freedom of the media. Ho, and whose objective is to “give a good future” to the entire country. The President will begin a round of talks with political leaders “to see what compromises can be made and who can (govern) with whom.”

The only alternative to vetoing the extreme leader would be not to take the oath of office as Chancellor, if that moment hypothetically arose, but that would open an unprecedented crisis, because in the end, whoever rules in Austria will be the same parliamentary candidate. will be. The majority so as not to fall before possible motions of censure.