The key to the use of US missiles inside Russia: an important political decision with limited impact on the war in Ukraine international

The fine print of a contract is usually decisive, and this is where the Ukrainian media have focused their interest after learning about Washington’s authorization for Kiev troops to use American long-range ATACMS missiles against Russia . The decision is of great political significance as it challenges the Russian threat of escalating the conflict, after more than a year of Ukrainian insistence on achieving it and when Joe Biden has less than two months left in the US presidency. With little time left, Ukrainian optimism is implicit because it believes it is too late to change the course of the war and because the fine print establishes that ATACMS will be used only against targets in the Russian province of Kursk. May go.

There has been no official US confirmation of what was published in the press, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the information as good in a message late Sunday: “Attacks are not carried out by words. These things are not announced. The missiles will speak for them.”

Last August, Ukrainian armed forces began a partial occupation of the Russian region of Kursk, adjacent to the Ukrainian province of Sumy. The operation, a personal decision of Zelensky, has several objectives: to demonstrate to the Kremlin that it is unsafe on its territory; Force the Russian army to transfer troops from other sectors of the front to Kursk, and keep a portion of the attacking country as property for future peace negotiations.

Russian counter-offensive at Kursk

According to Western intelligence services, Ukraine has lost a third of the Kursk region it once occupied and Russian commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov’s forces have launched a counteroffensive, killing more than 10,000 people. Has the support of Korean troops. , This North Korean presence would be the justification used by the Pentagon to ultimately approve the use of ATACMS. The weapon had already been in Ukraine’s arsenal since 2023, although it was only available for use within its borders.

The main thing is whether, as the American media reported, ATACMS can be used only against Russian positions in Kursk. The qualitative leap will be limited, bearing in mind that Ukraine is already hitting its enemy in the region with American Hummers missiles, which are accurate but medium-range – 80 kilometers. Confirmed objectives are bridges, anti-aircraft systems and concentrations of military machinery. The ATACMS, which can be fired from the same batteries as the HIMARS, has a strike range of 300 kilometers. This would allow hitting targets at Kursk from greater distances, i.e. with greater security guarantees that the launcher would not be identified and destroyed.

The US military think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that restricting the use of ATACMS only in Kursk is a blow to Ukraine and a significant change to Kiev’s ability to attack legitimate military targets within the region. “Must be authorized. “The Russian operational rear, not just in Kursk.”

Ukrainian military sources have told military news outlets war zone The main task of ATACMS is that “taking into account the current situation they will be a conventional strategic deterrent weapon.” That is, a weapon that will put the Kremlin on alert before taking any decision. These same sutras also lament war zone It is necessary that they be allowed to launch ATACMS far from Ukrainian borders, and not only against military targets, but also against the Russian energy system. On Sunday, Russia resumed large-scale bombings against the Ukrainian energy grid, once again causing power outages across the country.

John Helin, a researcher at the Finnish defense analysis group Black Bird, also highlights what the senior ranks of the Ukrainian military have been warning about since 2023: Russia has been relocating its rear bases and logistics centers for some time So that they can be kept out. Access to ATACMS. “The Russians have already placed many of their air units beyond the reach of ATACMS. Limiting this weapon to the Kursk would add even more limitations. The Russians will probably reorganize their command posts, logistics and air bases so as not to be so exposed as in Kursk,” says Helin. This expert confirms that pursuing these potential objectives would benefit the Ukrainian resistance at Kursk as the Russian military network would be more physically spread and would require more time to take action on the front.

confidential data

war zone Concludes that it is equally important to determine how many ATACMS units Ukraine will have. This data is confidential. Serhiy Zagurets, director of the military study group Defense Express, estimated this Monday that there could be a hundred. According to Zagurets, there will also be about 100 British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP long-range missiles that the Ukrainian Air Force will have. According to ISW, about 250 Russian military installations in the ATACMS range alone (beyond Kursk) are involved in the offensive. Storm Shadow/SCALP has a range of ATACMS, more than 560 kilometers.

In Ukraine, it is believed that Biden’s decision will also prompt Paris and London to authorize the use of their missiles against targets on Russian soil. Diary Figaro Published on Monday morning, the British and French governments had already given their approval, but a few hours later the information was removed from the medium’s website. Ukrainian agency RBC also reported from unnamed sources that Paris and London had acknowledged that their missiles could only reach Kursk.

Germany, which has long-range Taurus missiles, has been denying their transfer to Kiev, but the newspaper image It was announced this Monday that the German Defense Ministry has given the green light to a shipment of 4,000 long-range bomb drones that can be fired on targets in Russia. The fleet of drone bombs is actually the biggest threat Ukraine has posed against the Kremlin on its own territory, with attacks at times occurring more than 1,000 kilometers from its borders.

Its very late

The news about ATACMS has been received with mixed sensations in Ukraine. “This is a story of waste of time. And worse, lives have been lost, as has been the case throughout the history of (Western) arms supply. “This will not change the situation significantly, but it will make it a little easier for us and a little more difficult for them,” he wrote in Ukrainian media. espresso Political scientist Yuri Bogdanov.

The history of relations between Zelensky and his allies has been marked by tactics of assertiveness and diplomatic pressure. Whether with ATACMS, Leopard or Abrams tanks, F-16 aircraft or Patriot air defense missiles, the sequence has always been the same: after months of denial, the powers in NATO have ended up giving their authorization. As Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, admitted to EL PAIS on November 11, these months of delay mean a serious blow to the aggressor country.

As can be understood from Zelensky’s words, the imminent use of ATACMS against Russian soil will allow us to know whether the Kursk border is real or whether they go deep into the Russian map. Biden still has a few weeks to decide whether to expand the scope of his action, in favor of ending the war as soon as possible, before Donald Trump does, even if it means painful concessions to Ukraine. At any cost, the US President assumes office in January. Helin also understands that Biden’s move is a way to pressure Trump to continue aid to Ukraine. “It all depends on the point of view,” says Helin, “it feels good to help the Ukrainians, but it is too late to have a significant impact on the war, especially if it is limited to one area.”