The Supreme Leader’s call does not mobilize and the boycott ends in the first round in Iran

Calls for participation of Supreme Leader, Ayatollahs Ali KhameneiDeath was suspected last month – less than a week before the first round of the presidential election in a helicopter crash President’s Ebrahim Raisi– did not take hold among the frustrated and apathetic Iranian voters and turned out to be the winner of the elections held this Saturday in Iran, with more than 60%, the highest since the existence of the current democratic regime – in a context of high regional tensions and strong economic penalties due to Western sanctions.

A warning to the mullahs’ regime ahead of the second round, which will call on more than 61 million Iranians again within five days and in which they will be measured between electoral apathy and anxiety for the future A reformist candidateFormer Health Ministers Masoud PezeshkianThe most voted candidate with 42.5% of the votes and former chief nuclear negotiator Jalili saidWho received 38.6% of the ballots.

“60% of the population did not vote and this is a public defeat for Ayatollah Khamenei.” The supreme leader called for a massive turnout for the Islamic Republic and the population responded with restraint. What is certain is that his message is far from social reality. It is followed only by a minority of society who are its loyal supporters for political, economic and religious reasons. “There is a clear disconnect between the majority of the population and the current leadership that influences the country’s development,” political analysts tell La Razon. Daniel Bashandeh,

Presumably, Jalili will have to count in the second round the votes of citizens who gave their support to conservative candidates in the first round and prevailed over the reformist Pezeshkian, who stood out for his denunciation of the system’s corruption and his defense of women’s freedoms when choosing on issues such as purdah. Not in vain, when the results became known, the speaker of the Iranian parliament and former candidate Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafannounced that he would support his bloc mate Saeed Jalili in the second round (since 2005 a candidate had always reached 50% of the votes and, therefore, the first round was sufficient).

Ghalibaf’s support is relevant because he has long been a political rival of Jalili and his refusal to withdraw from this week’s first round has greatly benefited the reformist candidate. The legislature’s speaker has been the third most voted candidate in the elections with 3.3 million accumulated ballots, after Jalili (9.4 million) and Pezeshkian (10.4 million). In addition, Ghalibaf expressed “his personal respect” for Pezeshkian last Saturday, but also admitted his doubts about his candidacy given his proximity to “those forces” that have caused “a significant part of today’s economic and political problems” and who “must not return” to the arena of power.

“There will be no split in the conservative vote. Masoud Pezeshkian won the first round because he represented the only reformist candidate with options against the two conservative candidates, Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf,” predicts Bashndieh, who also notes the failure of the Pezeshkian-led front to mobilize despite the apparently favorable context following his death. Mahsa Amini -In September 2022, the girl lost her life at the hands of moral police for not wearing hijab and she died. Largest contemporary mobilization– And the direct participation of personalities such as former presidents Hasan Ruhani And Mohammad Khatami,

However, for the Spanish-Iranian political analyst, the regime’s relative defeat does not threaten the foundations of the system at the moment. “The current elections will serve to create a new balance of power. “History shows us that elections are a way to renew political positions in the Islamic Republic, to admit new actors and to expel those who pose a threat to the system,” Bashandeh concluded.

In the political system born of the 1979 revolution, the president is the first person elected by popular vote and the second most important figure in the system after the supreme leader, who reserves the final word on major domestic and foreign policy decisions. The current head of state, Ali Khamenei, He is 85 years oldTherefore the race for his succession is also open.