The war in Ukraine and Gaza has increased the risk of use of nuclear weapons in the world | International

A little over two years ago, in January 2022, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and China agreed that “nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought,” as they expressed in a joint statement. A month later, Russian forces invaded Ukraine, blowing away any consensus on the use of such weapons. Ever since, the threat of a leader resorting to New York has loomed.

A little more than two years ago, in January 2022, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and China agreed that “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought,” as they expressed it in a joint statement. A month later, the Russian army invaded Ukraine and blew away any consensus on the use of this type of weapon. Since then, the threat of a leader resorting to the nuclear button in one of the active conflicts – to which the war in Gaza was also added last October – has forced the nuclear powers to modernize their arsenals in a global context in which each inventory is increasingly speculated about, but in which secrecy has become the norm.

This is the scenario drawn by the annual report of the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies (SIPRI), published this Monday, which analyzes trends in nine countries with nuclear arsenals. “We have had a ban on nuclear weapons for 75 years (after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki), but now they have become so common in the debate that, in a crisis, leaders may feel forced to resort to them,” warns Mats Korda, researcher at the Swedish institute.

The total number of nuclear weapons ready for use in the world continues to rise, partly due to pressure from China. While the United States and Russia kept their nuclear arsenals relatively stable (with 3,708 and 4,380 weapons respectively) through 2023, Beijing increased its stockpile from 410 to 500 in a year, which is more than the increase of other powers such as India or South Korea. North.

Korda estimates that this increase is explained, first of all, by the possibility that China believes that its arsenal no longer has enough weight compared to other powers. “A few decades ago, Beijing could have been satisfied with having only 200 nuclear weapons, but now it sees that the United States and Russia are building advanced missile defense and have advanced defense capabilities that can eliminate its weapons,” the expert says.

The Chinese case is a good example to show the high level of tension between nuclear powers in recent months. According to the report, nuclear weapons have not played “such a prominent role in international relations” since the Cold War. This attitude has been reflected in the statements of many leaders in recent months, who use their nuclear power as a method of deterrence.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has on several occasions threatened weapons capable of “destroying civilization” and said that Russia is “ready for nuclear war.” Just a week ago, Moscow carried out nuclear exercises together with Belarus. Along the same lines, one of the ministers of Israel’s war cabinet, in the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu, assured in November that launching a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip was “a possibility”. Leaders of countries such as North Korea and Pakistan have also made alarming statements.

However, Korda said, the role of the West cannot be ignored: “NATO has also given strong indications that it has nuclear power. It is very cautious and does not use rhetoric because it does not want to appear as aggressive as Russia. But if you look at their military exercises, many of them are near the Russian border.

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Despite these demonstrations of power, Sipri argues that transparency regarding nuclear weapons is decreasing every year. In February 2023, Russia unilaterally suspended the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), created in 2010 to exchange data twice a year on its nuclear forces with the United States. Washington ended the deal by disclosing the figures in the first half of 2023, but has since stopped doing so. One of its largest allies, London, did the same. “For three years we do not know much about the size of the British arsenal, despite the fact that it was previously one of the most transparent countries in this regard,” the expert denounced.

“The irony is that some of the most authoritarian states are the least opaque,” says the expert. One of the clearest examples is North Korea, which, although it is one of the countries with the greatest secrecy in almost any aspect, is one of the countries that boasts the most about its nuclear potential. “There are missile parades, pictures are shown and everything is a message of their strength,” he says.

SIPRI reports that Kim Jong-un’s regime has assembled at least 50 nuclear weapons, up from about 20 a year ago (this is the country that is growing the most after China). In addition, since September, the constitution establishes North Korea’s status as a “nuclear weapon state.” According to the new law, their arsenal must be “ready for action” and, contrary to widespread doctrine, can be used preventively. No first useThat is, containment, in which countries agree to respond but not to attack.

Trump is back

The G-7 summit ended last week with complaints from North Korea and Iran for supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine and an elephant in the room: the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House in the November elections. But what will this mean in nuclear matters? “There is always an element of unpredictability (with Trump). However, we can see that during his mandate (2017-2021) he sent messages to his allies so that they do not leave their security exclusively in the hands of the United States,” says Korda. As in February, when the Republican candidate questioned the functional basis of NATO, declaring that Washington would not defend alliance partners who do not comply with the spending objective of 2% of GDP.

The expert also highlights the case of South Korea, a country that has the technical means to create its own nuclear arsenal and that, in addition, has the support of a large part of the population in this matter in the face of the threat posed by the North. “The message that Trump has sent is that other countries develop nuclear weapons for their own security. This will give more leaders access (to the nuclear button) and they are all subject to their whims and irrationality,” he added.

Looking to the future, there is also concern about how war tensions in the Middle East develop. As the report points out, Iran continues to enrich uranium and is very close to the line of nuclear development. According to Korda, whether Tehran crosses that line will depend on political calculations rather than strategic ones: “Nuclear weapons can be very valuable to a country’s security and that need can have internal resonance.” Israel, against calls for restraint, launched a limited attack on the Iranian province of Isfahan in April in response to an unprecedented bombardment of missiles and drones that Tehran had previously directed against Israeli territory. That province is home to Iran’s most important nuclear research complex.

The report highlights two advances in nuclear security. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China in June last year paved the way for talks on arms control. That same month, Washington and Tehran reached an informal agreement to ease tensions between the two. However, Sipri regrets, attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US forces in Syria and Iraq put an end to diplomatic efforts.

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