There are four times more buyers than sellers, prices are the highest… but transactions soar by 23%

There is one point (or several) in Spanish housing market it challenges economic orthodoxy. If prices rise due to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, which should somehow reduce sales, as it happens in markets such as olive oil; The truth is that even the very high housing prices that are already in place are not stopping activity right now.

According to the latest known statistics, College of Registrars -from which INE statistics are derived-, Home sales rose 23.8% in April from a year earlier, to 50,577 transactions., which confirms the positive trend announced in the first two months of the year, but interrupted in the third. Although due to situational factors. The month of March showed a significant decline due to the possible impact of Holy Week celebrated at the end of this month.

mortgage Residential construction developed in parallel with exploitation and increased from 25,069 in April last year to 32 326 this year an increase of more than 7,000 operations.

Great energy

Thus, the real estate market continues to demonstrate very noticeable activity, despite the fact that prices are not falling. According to data provided last Thursday by the agency National Institute of Statistics (INE)housing prices increased by 6.3% until March at interannual ratea significant increase in prices, similar to the figures shown in 2021, when consumer demand suppressed by the pandemic began to take effect on the market.

Relevant operators such as idealistic They argue that prices are already at levels higher than those seen during the real estate bubble that emerged in the years leading up to the Great Recession of 2008. Others, such as appraisers Tinsa They also warn that according to their data, the islands have already recovered to these levels and that overall they are already up 39.7% from the low recorded in August 2015, highlighting the islands as the group that has grown the most. overvalued (+47.1%), ahead of provincial capitals and major cities (+46.8%).

According to experts, the main reason for the steady rise in prices is lack of supply and high demand, an imbalance that Fotocasa has just put into numbers. According to this site, currently There are 78% buyers or those wishing to buy, and only 15% sellers.. And the situation, Fotocasa warns, will not improve, because interest rate cuts recently approved by the European Central Bank (ECB) This will encourage many to enter the market with the prospect of cheaper financing.

To buy or not to buy

Even if it is true that the banks were engaged “mortgage war” attract customers and thereby make money from falling rates, Emiliano Bermudez, Deputy General Manager of donpisobelieves that for potential buyers “The medium-term benefit they might get from paying less interest on their mortgage does not compensate for either the wait or the rise in prices. purchases that will occur due to greater optimism in the economy and real estate in a few months.

Ricard Garriga, CEO of mortgage fintech TriotecaI’m also one of those who think so “mistake” – waiting longer to buy a house if you have the ability for it. “Yes, the mortgage may be cheaper, but the apartment will probably be 10% more expensive than now,” he warns. In this regard, Patricia Rodriguez-Lazaro warns against Cliquelia that “in large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, ​​the growth reported by INE does not fully reflect the high growth we see daily in home sales, where growth reaches double digits.”