There are more and more voices in the tech industry who believe that AI is a giant bubble. And they have good arguments.
AI is a bubble. Not us, but Robin Li, the CEO of Baidu, the Chinese tech giant, who, oddly enough, has also been infected by this phenomenon. Despite investing in the development of their chatbot Ernie and other solutions, this manager thinks it looks bad.
From bubble to bubble. The statements were made in an interview at the Future of Business event organized by Harvard Business Review. In it, Lee explained that what we are seeing with AI has already been seen in other “technology waves.” He cited the dot-com bubble of late 1999 as a clear example, saying that the bubble phenomenon was “virtually inevitable.”
This is no longer interesting, but useful. For this manager, once the initial excitement stage has passed, people will feel disappointed to see that the technology has created such high expectations. And yet, this cycle we are experiencing, he emphasized, is “healthy.”
99% of AI companies will disappear. For Lee, what will happen is clear: the bursting of the bubble will lead to the disappearance of 99% of the companies currently operating in this field. The cleanup process in the sector will be extraordinary as it will root out “many of those false innovations or products that are not market fit.”
And this 1% will dominate everything in AI.. And the consequence will be concentration in 1% of current companies. These few companies will “stand out, become giants and create enormous value.” According to this manager, AI development this year has been quieter but also healthier than last year.
AI makes almost no mistakes anymore. According to Lee, one of the most important improvements we’ve seen over the past 18 months is one in the accuracy of chatbots, which no longer make as many mistakes as before. “When you talk to a chatbot, you can trust the answer it gives you.”
But it will take time to affect our work. He also highlighted the impact of artificial intelligence on employment, which he believes will exist, but in the long term: it will be 10 to 30 years before AI replaces human jobs.
AI Bubble: Yes or No. Recent situations also suggest that we are experiencing an AI bubble. In July, for example, the Nasdaq 100 lost more than a trillion dollars in a single day, led by big tech companies. In August the situation repeated itself. Reason: The benefits of AI were not clear to investors, who changed their positions. Months later, this appears to be just a glimmer as NVIDIA is at an all-time high and the rest of the big tech companies are also trending higher. If a bubble exists, one thing is clear: it continues to inflate.
Image | Xataka with Freepic Picaso
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