As announced by the Mexican government as a plan to contain the inflationsuspending food exports such as corn and beans, in the United States the government and refiners are discussing suspending gasoline exports, which would have a severe impact on Mexico, experts said.
According to Bloomberg, “officials of the White House They have asked the United States Department of Energy to analyze the impacts of a ban on exports of gasoline, diesel and other refined products.
If the measure materializes, there would be serious consequences for the Mexican market, including a probable shortage in the short term, said Luis Miguel Labardini, a specialist in the energy sector and a partner at consultancy firm Marcos y Asociados.
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He considered that, although the government of Joe Biden, like the Mexican government, intends to contain inflation, choosing to ban gasoline exports would be a desperate decision, unlikely for now.
In any case, he said, the Mexican government should take this debate with caution and ask PMI Comercio Internacional, the commercial arm of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), “to start looking for alternative sources of supply in other countries, even if this implies negotiating prices in an open market and with a probable upward trend in prices”.
For the US market there would also be consequences. The American Petroleum Institute (API, for its acronym in English) and the Association of Fuel and Petrochemical Producers (AFPM), warned that a ban on continuing to place abroad 3.5 million barrels per day of oil products produced in US refineries could To begin with, shoot up the price by 15 cents per gallon in the case of gasoline and 45 cents per gallon for diesel.
Ramsés Pech, industry analyst and partner at the firm Caraiva y Asociados-León & Pech Architects, agreed that Mexico would have a serious problem if gasoline exports from the neighboring country were banned.
“You just have to remember that Mexico imports between 800,000 and 850,000 barrels of oil products a day, most of the US market,” he stressed.
In addition, with a National Refining System that has not yet taken off, a new refinery (Dos Bocas) that still does not produce a single barrel, and without the possibility that the Deer Park refinery, owned by Pemex, can send product of this side of the border if exports are prohibited, the situation for Mexico is worrying, he added.
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Currently, Pech explained, six out of every 10 liters of gasoline and diesel consumed by Mexicans are imported, mainly from the US market.
The specialist, Gonzalo Monroy, director of the consulting firm GMECdescribed as devastating for Mexico a measure like the one being debated in the US.
However, he considered that if the United States closes the door on its fuel exports, Mexico could resort to the spot market and secure ships that can supply product, or look in other markets, such as Aruba and Brazil.
The concern is even greater after this Wednesday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and 10 allies decided to reduce crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day, which could drag the price of the barrel upwards.
According to a letter from Mike Sommers and Chet Thompson, presidents of the API and the AFPM, sent to the Secretary of Energy of that country, Jennifer Granholm on October 4, “the US refining industry is committed to working with the Biden administration to ensure Americans have access to affordable and reliable fuel.”
However, they argued that “an export ban will disrupt global markets and damage the national security of the United States and its geopolitical position.”
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