They warn of ultra-aggressive olive oil prices for two months.
The price of olive oil, constantly rising due to poor olive harvests in recent years, among other factors, will exceed a critical point between late October and early November, when Spanish oil mills begin to bottle the oil collected in the next campaign. . Olive sector experts predict a better harvest than last year, which could lead to normalization of prices due to greater availability of products.
The main unknown, as is usually the case in such cases, is knowing when and how the price of olive oil will fall. With an estimated production of 1.2 million tonnes, no extreme temperatures this season and rainfall levels suitable for olive growing, supplies are expected to increase next year.
However, prices for olive oil at origin may begin to fall before consumers even notice it in supermarkets or stores. In particular, from November to January, as long as weather conditions remain favorable. Despite this, the speed of their reflection on the shelves will vary, which will force retail chains to draw up an action plan to prevent customer flight.
Victor Roig, CEO of Deoleo in Spain, notes Independent that between September and November supermarkets will have to deal with complex price management and, he points out, it is possible that competition between them will lead to significant fluctuations. Those who achieve good purchasing prices will be able to offer more competitive prices to their customers, while others will have to adjust their prices more slowly.
If the price per liter at the place of origin is between 3 and 5 euros, the price to the consumer could be between 6 and 8 euros. Currently, the price of origin of olive oil is 7.49 euros/l, which is 29.3% more than in 2023. Some brands reached 15 euros per bottle, and white brands, with a market share of more than 60%, reached 10 euros.
Rising prices led to a decline in consumption, but not as sharply as expected, although it is estimated that penetration quota equivalent to almost half a million homes was lost. Olive oil production between October and May reached 851,014.67 tons, 11% more than initially expected.