They warn that mosquito-borne diseases will spread around the world and become more common.

Geographic range of vector-borne diseases, especially Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.has expanded rapidly over the past 80 years, and now more than half the world’s population is at risk from outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases caused by global warming and urbanization will spread in the coming decades to parts of Northern Europe, Asia, North America and Australia that are currently unaffected.

In a new research brief to be presented at this year’s ESCMID (formerly ECCMID) Global Congress in Barcelona, ​​ICREA Professor Rachel Lowe, who leads the global healthcare sustainability group at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center in Spain, will discuss the evolving global threat. vector-borne diseases and the critical importance improve surveillance and early warning systems to combat this now almost global phenomenon.

“Global warming due to climate change means that disease vectors that transmit and spread malaria and dengue fever may find a home in more regions, with outbreaks occurring in areas where people are likely to be immunologically naive and health systems are not ready,” warns Professor Low. “The harsh reality is that longer warm seasons will expand the seasonal window spread of mosquito-borne diseases and will contribute to outbreaks that are becoming more frequent and more difficult to control.“.

Previously, dengue fever (transmitted by mosquitoes that bite during the day) was largely limited to tropical and subtropical regions as low temperatures kill mosquito larvae and eggs, but longer warm seasons have allowed dengue to become the fastest spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world.

Nine of the 10 years with the highest incidence of dengue have occurred since 2000, allowing dengue-carrying mosquitoes to invade thirteen European countries, with local spread of the disease in France, Italy and Spain in 2023. The number of dengue fever cases reported to WHO has increased eightfold over the past two decades.from 500,000 in 2000 to more than 5 million in 2019.

Professor Lowe will explain how her recent research into climate extremes in the Caribbean found that drought conditions Warmer than usual temperatures followed 4 or 5 months later. and heavy rains increase the likelihood of dengue outbreaks. “Droughts and floods associated with climate change may lead to increased transmission of the virus, and stored water creates additional breeding grounds for mosquitoes. Lessons from previous outbreaks highlight the importance of assessing future vector-borne disease risks and preparing contingency measures for future outbreaks.” “, he notes.

Projections show that If global warming can be limited to the ambitious 1°C target, the population at risk of malaria and dengue fever is expected to increase by a further 2.4 billion people by 2100.compared to the period 1970-1999. However, if the current trajectory of high carbon dioxide emissions and population growth continues, twice as many people (4.7 billion) will suffer from dengue fever and malaria by the end of the century.

“With climate change looking so difficult to tackle, we can expect an increase in cases and possibly deaths from diseases such as dengue and malaria across continental Europe. We must anticipate outbreaks and act to intervene early to prevent diseases from occurring in the first place. Efforts must be made. focus on improve surveillance through early warning and response systems similar to those in other parts of the world.to more effectively allocate limited resources to areas of greatest risk to control and prevent disease outbreaks and save lives,” warns the professor.

By combining monitoring of disease-carrying insects with climate forecasts, researchers are developing ways to predict when and where epidemics might occur and target interventions early on to areas of greatest risk. One such project, led by Professor Low, is using a powerful supercomputer to understand how climate and disease transmission relate to predicting mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in twelve countries.

“By analyzing weather conditions, detecting mosquito breeding sites using drones, and collecting information from local communities and health officials, we hope to give communities time to prepare and protect themselves“Professor Low explains.