Trump returns to the White House…and thereby influences the values ​​of Ibex 35

On January 20, Donald Trump will become as the 47th President of the United States and will do so for the second timewhich has only one precedent since the defeat of the previous US election with Grover Cleveland in the 19th century. with 277 electoral votes and nearly five million popular votes ahead of Harris, with a victory of 51% of the vote.

And its effect from the first minute on the financial markets has been devastating: with Bitcoin, which it now supports unconditionally. after calling it “garbage” in 2021again exponential growth in US debt yields given the country’s expected fiscal expansion and contribution to cyclical valuesas DPAM points out, with energy, financial and some technological ones.

But the effect has already had a detrimental effect on the Spanish stock market.And Europe as a whole is preparing for the already announced increase in duties on exports to the United States.

Companies benefiting from Trump’s victory

Although it may seem otherwise, There are companies on the Spanish stock market that can clearly benefit. This is the case with Acerinox, which has a significant portion of its business in the United States. It is the de facto leader in stainless steel in this country and, following its purchase in February, Haynes International is strengthening its presence following its acquisition of VDM Metals four years ago. This is one of the values ​​that, when combined with fiscal expansion, can bring the greatest benefit.

Also IAG (Iberia) with its alliances with airlines such as American Airlines, with which it codeshares transatlantic flights, together with British Airways. Its impact on the price of crude oil, down as Trump’s victory, which in the case of Brent reached $76 before it was announced, fell to a low of $73.64, which will have a positive impact on kerosene prices.

Grifols A, a blood products company, also has a significant portion of its core business, plasma, on the other side of the Atlantic, and the Republican victory is a positive result. And also its price in ADR, as in the case of Ferrovial, and the high level of concessions in the USA, especially on toll roads. The company’s listing on Nasdaq, accompanied by the growth of the US market, also contributes to the increase in value.

Companies hurt by Trump’s victory

Unfortunately for the stock market, many stocks could suffer from Donald Trump’s policies next year. One of them is BBVA due to its strong presence in Mexico, a country neighboring the United States and in which the elected president promised to introduce duties on its exports of 25% due to his concerns about drug smuggling into his country. Actually yesterday The Mexican peso recorded its lowest level in two years. from September 2022.

But in general, Spanish financial institutions Let’s not forget that their share in the Spanish selection is almost 30%. They may be affected by the inflationary effect that Trump’s policies on fiscal expansion, immigration and tariffs may have, which could again affect global interest rates. So Banco Santander, a company with a strong US presence that should in principle benefit from a win, could suffer, as we saw in its price yesterday.

This shift from more subdued rates in the US by the Fed to more relaxed ones, while the macroeconomic situation in Europe has been derailed by the ECB, could have a strong impact on the sector. In fact, in just one day the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December fell by 7 points in the CME group survey.

There are two more sectors that resolve into one, which is also negatively affected by your victory. We’re talking about green energy and its expansion, which is still in its infancy almost in the US with companies like Iberdrola and Acciona, among others, which may be limited given Trump’s idea to continue to actively promote fossil fuels and deny climate change . . An effect that could offset some of China’s advantages that the future president wants to limit in the market.

His additional idea is lower energy prices with increased oil production and more U.S. crude oil supplies coming to market to revive the economy. This will be a negative for renewable energy and utilities. with a strong presence, as the company chaired by Ignacio Sánchez Galán, is still mainly in the east of the country.