Trump, Ukraine and an international board are under investigation
Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections has introduced a new element of uncertainty into the war in Ukraine. Although he will not take office until January 6, 2025, his campaign promises and potential appointments to his team have led to speculation about what changes his administration might bring.
Trump has announced his Intends to resolve conflict in Ukraine within days, an ambitious promise that lacks concrete detailsHis unpredictable outlook and the diversity of positions in his close circle further complicate the picture. While figures such as Marco Rubio, the prospective Secretary of State, advocate a negotiated solution, other members of his team, such as Pete Hegseth, warn about the risks of a ceasefire that would allow Russia to regroup its forces. .
Support for Ukraine decreased
One of the most likely scenarios under the Trump administration Drastic reduction in military and economic aid to UkraineThis stance could leave the country in a vulnerable position, hampering its ability to resist Russian forces. Furthermore, reduced US support would weaken NATO unity, opening the door to a greater role for Europe in the conflict.
In Europe, figures like Josep Borrell have highlighted this The importance of European support to Ukraine, which already represents almost half (47%) of all aid the country receives. However, the lack of US leadership could increase divisions within the EU, especially among countries that maintain a more conciliatory stance towards Moscow, such as Hungary and Slovakia.
A negotiated settlement?
On the other hand, some analysts believe that Trump may insist on a negotiated solution while demanding concessions from both Russia and Ukraine. However, this would require complex agreements and security guarantees for Ukraine, as well. Restructuring of sanctions against RussiaDespite the potential for reduced tensions in the short term, such an agreement risks being viewed as a victory for the Kremlin, which could further destabilize the region.
in this context, Moscow faces a strategic dilemma: seize the opportunity to negotiate with the Trump administration or continue its military strategyMeanwhile, Ukraine must decide whether to accept territorial concessions in exchange for peace, an option that, while controversial, has gained some support among the population according to recent polls.
future of nato
Trump’s withdrawal also casts doubt on NATO’s future prosperity. During his first term, he openly criticized the coalition, causing tension with European allies. If you take a more isolationist stance, NATO solidarity could be compromised, which would weaken the West’s position vis-à-vis Russia.
In any case, the war in Ukraine is far from resolved. The Trump administration’s decisions, along with the strategies adopted by Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, will determine the direction of a conflict that remains one of the greatest geopolitical challenges of our time.
