“Trump’s campaign is a total disaster”

Do you think the Democratic Convention is helping Americans get to know Kamala Harris better?

The Democratic convention could have been an ugly spectacle, with fights inside the convention to choose a nominee and riots outside by pro-Hamas protesters joined by leftists and anarchists who were trying to recreate the horrific scenes of 1968. Neither of those things has happened. When Biden withdrew, party elites almost immediately united around Harris, preventing an “open” convention. The demonstrations outside the convention have failed. They have been small and the Chicago Police Department has been controlled and professional. As a result, the convention has become one big Democratic advertisement. Harris gave the biggest speech of her career on Thursday night, and she had to hit a home run (in baseball parlance). But everything was set up for her to achieve that.

Because of his origins, the vice president seems to associate more with Obama than Biden. Could this help you attract the vote of minorities and women?

Both Obamas – husband and wife – tried their best to give Harris some of the same Obama magic in their speeches. But will it work? A big problem for Democrats has been that most minorities are working class, not members of the college-educated “laptop” class. And working-class people, who were once the backbone of the center-left Democratic Party, have shifted toward the Republicans. This is quite noticeable among Hispanic men and, to a lesser extent, African-American men (women lean toward the Democratic Party). Obama tried to make identity politics work in Harris’s favor, but she needs to address the real concerns of working-class people of all races.

What is the candidate’s weakest point that Republicans will attack?

Harris has been adept at managing the left-leaning coalition within the Democratic Party. But in doing so, she made public statements that sounded very bad to the moderate and undecided voters she now has to win over. Her statements from 2019 and 2020 make her seem anti-police, pro-crime, and pro-illegal immigrants. She needs to abandon these positions without angering the left-wing faction of her party, and instead emphasize popular positions like saving retirees’ pensions and lowering drug prices. So far, she has avoided interviews with the press that would ask her tough questions, but that may not last. Plus, Trump’s campaign has completely collapsed. But maybe that won’t last either. Once the convention is over, things will get much more difficult for her.

⁠Does the Biden administration’s legacy help or hurt it with voters?

Both. Strong action by the administration and Congress helped the United States recover from the COVID pandemic far more quickly than Europe. But the country also saw high inflation, brutal conditions on the southern border, and a wave of urban crime. Today, inflation is low, illegal immigration is down significantly, and crime is down in most major cities. But voters have not really absorbed the good news. They only remember the pain. The elections are three months away. What image will voters have in their minds?

Is Harris closing the gap with Trump in key states?

Polls everywhere are giving Harris good news, and Trump bad news. But Harris has had the best month of her entire political career. Her campaign team (which now includes many former Obama staffers) is doing a great job. Her ads show her happy, relaxed, and normal. That sounds good. Your vice president’s ads are even better: Think of the nicest, friendliest high school football coach you’ve ever seen. Meanwhile, Trump’s ads look terrible. He appears to have filmed them himself using his cell phone, and they contain dark, angry, incoherent talk. Harris would likely have won if the election were next week. But Hillary Clinton was even further away from Trump at this point in 2016. Of course, she ultimately lost. A lot can happen in three months! The show is not over yet.