Ultra boom tests the strength of traditional parties in Romania – EuroFE Euractiv
Bucharest (EUROFE).- Legislative elections are being held in Romania this Sunday, following the unexpected victory of an extremist and pro-Russian candidate in the first presidential round, following the rise of the extreme right, against the Grand Coalition government between the two countries. There was a clear protest vote. Social democrats and conservatives.
The legislative election campaign has also been affected by the presidential election. Controversy over new recount ordered by the Constitutional Court On Thursday, an unprecedented measure in the democracy of the Balkan country of 19 million inhabitants.
Who rules in Romania?
Romania, a member of NATO and the European Union (EU), has been largely governed since 2021. Coalition between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL). Although the alliance provided stability following the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it also created discontent among its bases.
The alliance faces the highest inflation in the EU, set to exceed 10% in 2023Persistent inequality between urban and rural areas, and a perception of political stagnation. Corruption cases have further eroded public confidence.
Clara Voluntiru of the German Marshall Fund also highlights EFE’s “weakness of leadership”. Neither Marcel Ciolacu, the former leader of the PSD and still Prime Minister, nor Nicolae Ciuca of the PNL aroused enthusiasm and are seen as gray bureaucrats.
What happened during the first presidential term?
A big surprise came: last Sunday Kailyn Georgescu, with anti-NATO, pro-Russian and ultra-nationalist speech, won with about 23% of the vote without any party support. When surveys gave them 6%. Elena Lasconi, leader of the pro-European formation Union Save Romania (USR), came in second place, defeating candidates from traditional parties, the PSD and the PNL, which failed to advance to the second round.
Due to this failure the leaders had to resign Both structures caused political upheaval.
How does Georgescu’s victory affect the legislative elections?
Before the presidential elections, the PSD led the legislative elections with 30% of voting intentions, followed by the PNL with 20%.
However, extreme swings in presidential elections could give a boost to right-wing forces, a phenomenon that Voluntiru fears: “I think we can expect a big premium for extremist parties, because this electorate is even more Will get organized.”
Furthermore, holding elections on Romania’s national day could benefit nationalist sectors. Overall, the PSD and PNL have a solid regional presence and popularity that generally exceeds that of their leaders.
What are ultra parties?
The national-populist Coalition for the Romanian Union (AUR), the far-right SOS and the new youth party share an ultra- and Eurosceptic agendaBut they do not form a united block due to differences among their leaders. His supporters are concentrated in rural areas and among disaffected youth.
According to Volantiru, Georgescu’s success in presidential elections represents the “protest vote” of frustrated citizens In a context of high inflation, unemployment and the abandonment of the rural world, traditional parties are seen as ineffective and distant.
What do the surveys say?
Polls in Romania are not very reliable and they did not detect Georgescu’s emergence in the presidential elections. Some media, such as Euronews Romania, chose instead to broadcast the internal calculations of the parties themselves, according to which the PSD is expected to get 25 to 30% of the vote, followed by the PNL with 15 to 20%. ,
Pro-European USR ranges from 10% to 15%Whereas militant forces together may exceed 30%. On the other hand, a poll conducted after the presidential elections placed the far-right AU in first place with 22.4% of voting intentions, followed by the PDS with 21.4%.
What if the ultrasound result is good?
A good result for ultranationalist parties in the legislative elections would strengthen Georgescu in the presidential elections. Although Romania is a parliamentary democracy, the President influences international politics, security, and the political agenda, making it difficult to govern without his cooperation.
If Georgescu becomes president and wins an absolute majority in parliament, the country could turn towards nationalist policies and distance itself from the EU and NATO, a concern for pro-European sectors.
What is the situation for pro-European parties?
Bad. The PSD and PNL, historically Romania’s main political forces, are going through a crisis. While the PSD tries to preserve its rural base and control over part of the state machinery, the PNL supports Lasconi (USR) for the presidency, with the expectation of naming the next Prime Minister if she wins. Will do.
The USR, which represents the urban middle class, criticizes the recount of vote counts ordered by the Constitutional Court, fearing it would hurt Lasconi, who trailed Social Democrat Ciolacu by only 2,700 votes, and in Looks at the hand of PSD. decision.
Edited by Sandra Municio