Uncertainty in France about governance marks final stages of hastily conducted campaign | International

The nervousness is compounded by the most important and hastily called elections in recent French history. A week before the first round of legislative elections, there is total uncertainty about France’s future governability. The extreme right is at the doorstep of power, but it is unclear whether it can open them wide. According to polls, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will not get an absolute majority in the seats it receives…

The nervousness is compounded by the most important and hastily called elections in recent French history. A week before the first round of legislative elections, there is total uncertainty about France’s future governability. The extreme right is at the doorstep of power, but it is unclear whether it can open them wide. According to polls, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) will not get the absolute majority of seats it seeks to give the country a definitive turn, and for many, this is a dangerous situation. But it will be located very close to it.

The tensions over the possibility of an extreme right-wing government are evident in the two blocs that want to avoid it but, at the same time, they refuse to cooperate with each other in parliament: the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) and Ensemble (Together), the group of parties around President Emmanuel Macron, who called the election after losing to the RN in the European elections, and which finished third in the election.

The NFP, second in terms of voting intentions but far from the majority that would allow it to govern, is striving to overcome the doubts of the most liberal voters. Above all, it rejects the dominant position of France’s radical left Insoumise (LFI) and its controversial leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

head of the apart From the relative silence he maintained during the first days of the campaign, he emerged over the weekend and once again made clear his ambitions, including the ambition to become prime minister in the event of a left-wing victory. The response has been overwhelming. Former Socialist president François Hollande responded this Sunday, “If you want to be useful to the New Popular Front, you should step aside and keep quiet.” Hollande’s support for the NFP, including his candidacy for one seat, is considered one of the guarantees that the left-wing electoral alliance will not let itself fall behind. apart by Mélenchon. Communist Party secretary Fabien Roussel said “the idea of ​​nominating Mélenchon as prime minister (…) was never agreed upon among the Popular Front forces.”

On the part of the Ensemble, criticism of Macron’s decision to call an early election has not stopped among his closest former allies. It highlights the bitterness of the formation relegated to third place in the future National Assembly. After former Macronist Prime Minister Edouard Philippe accused the president of “killing the presidential majority”, Gabriel Attal, the current holder of the post, has admitted that things will have to be “better” in the future if they manage to regain power, something increasingly unlikely.

The surveys published this Sunday agree on one thing: the RN, which has made steady progress in recent years thanks to Le Pen, continues to lead the voting intentions of the French. The survey was carried out on Sunday by the Elabe Institute The Tribune du Dimanche And the BFMTV channel also puts RN close to an absolute majority of seats. Intention for the first round of voting (the second will be on July 7) Lepeniste This would rise to 36% if the votes of a part of the conservative party Los Republicans, which has been pulled by its nominal president Eric Ciotti to join the extreme right, are added. A coalition that would give them between 250 and 280 delegates, according to Ellabé’s estimates.

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The absolute majority in the National Assembly is 289 deputies, out of a total of 577 seats. The Sunday newspaper speaks of “at least, a solid relative majority” for the RN, whose prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella has insisted all week that he will only form a government if he has an absolute majority.

The predominance of RN is evident in all surveys, although with somewhat less power. That of Ifop-Fiducial for the newspaper Figaro And the LCI and Sud radio channels “union of rights”, that is, RN and Ciotti, give 35% of voting intention, which, according to the first estimates, would translate into between 200 and 240 delegates. For the one from Ipsos Le Parisian And Radio France, which does not forecast seats because it considers this premature, gives the extreme right a total of 35.5% voting intention (31.5% RN and 4% allied Republicans).

According to Elabe, the left-wing coalition New Popular Front is in second place with 27% of voting intention and between 150 and 170 seats, while other surveys, which give the left around 29% of the vote, see this increase to between 180 and 210. In third place is the Macronist Ensemble, with an average of 20% of the vote, which would leave them between 80 and 110, a far cry from the 250 they had in the recently dissolved National Assembly.

The surveys forecast another coincidence: a possible high participation in the elections, around 62%, well above the 47.5% in 2022. This would be close to the 64% achieved in the other important election, the 2002 legislative elections, held shortly after the shock of the arrival of Jean-Marie Le Pen, then leader of the extreme right, in the second round of the presidential elections of that year. It was the first time that the then National Front, now transformed into the RN at the hands of his daughter Marine, advanced so far.

22 years later, the fear of the advent of the extreme right is clearly less, although it continues to disturb a part of the population. This Sunday, 170 diplomats signed Le Monde A platform in which they warn of the danger of the RN government, which is historically too close to Russia, at a time when a war caused by Moscow is on Europe’s doorstep.

“We cannot allow the victory of the far right to weaken France and Europe at a time when there is a war here,” warned the diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Our opponents will read the victory of the far right as an invitation to weaken the French and to interfere in our national politics, to aggression against Europe and to the economic vassalage of France and the continent in military terms.”

Those who sign with their first and last name in the same newspaper are 800 scientists and researchers who also warn against allowing themselves to be “influenced by obscurantism”. Without explicitly referring to the extreme right, their position is clear when they warn that “the guarantee of a responsible, mature and lasting democracy” are principles such as “openness to the world and the free movement of persons”. They also call for the EU to be “strengthened and not endangered”, warn about the “extreme danger” posed by “climate denialism” and make it clear that “xenophobia, racism, anti-Semitism or excluding someone because of their membership in a group” are red lines.

The rejection of the extreme right has brought many citizens to the streets across France this Sunday, called by feminist organizations and unions that denounce the “fake feminism” of the RN and the “real danger” that its coming to power would pose to women’s rights.

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