Von der Leyen, Kallas and Costa are the favourites to head the EU leadership for the next five years

After the European elections, one of the most anticipated events of the community bubble begins: the Appointment of senior officials Who will take charge of this giant company for the next five years. It is an exercise in walking a tightrope to achieve a geographical, ideological and gender balance acceptable to all. 27 leaders of state and government will meet this Monday at an informal dinner in Brussels to begin solving the puzzle. Among the names that are gaining strength are the following: Ursula von der Leyen to repeat as head of the European Commission; Antonio Costa to the council; Roberta Metsola again with the reins of the European Parliament and Kaja Callas To the High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

It is estimated to be easier to square the circle now than it was in 2019. The sentiment in community capital is that consensus The election of the new leaders of the European institutions is near. But there is a popular saying for any major negotiation in Brussels: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Top Jobs They also leave a lesson that a leader’s refusal can destroy all plans and completely change the plan in a second. This is what happened five years ago when Emmanuel Macron He made the move to move Ursula von der Leyen, then fairly unknown, who was not in any pool, to the top of the Berlaymont, the headquarters of the European Commission.

The refusal of a leader can destroy all plans and change the plan completely

A lot of things have happened since then. The last one is Macron’s crushing defeat in last week’s European elections, where extreme right Marine Le Pen won, doubling the number of seats of the liberals. Due to the political upheaval, early elections for the National Assembly were announced. With this situation in the background, the head and energy of the President of the French Republic, one of the most combative figures in these negotiations, is more in Paris than in Brussels. In addition, his Ability to maneuver and influence This has been compounded by weakness at home and the collapse of the liberal group in the European Parliament.

Monday’s informal summit will be the first temperature check. The 27 can close an agreement. If they can’t achieve it, they are called to achieve it European Union That will happen later this month. The stopwatch is ticking. The European Parliament will have to vote for its president in the first session of this legislature, during the week of July 16. A position for which the reelection of the Maltese Roberta Metsola of the European People’s Party seems strongly likely.

MEPs can also ask to vote for the leader of the European Commission during that plenary session. In 2019, von der Leyen passed the European Chamber filter by a minimum of nine votes. If the leader is to ultimately confirm her nomination for the post, she will need the support of 361 of the 720 MEPs. The sense of urgency comes at a time when The EU wants to avoid giving an image of instability Or with the rise of schism and Eurosceptic forces, the war in Ukraine that shows no sign of ending soon and the threat of Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House.

Christian Democrats claim the presidency of the European Commission, the most prestigious position in Brussels

Win of PPE In the last election it has become the strongest political family, a trend that has been repeated since 1999. For this reason, the Christian Democrats are demanding the presidency of the European Commission, the most prestigious position in Brussels. In second place, the Social Democrats demand that the European Council, now headed by the liberal Belgian Charles Michel, be taken over. They have put a name on the table: the former prime minister of Portugal. Antonio Costa.The Portuguese has earned the respect of many of his former colleagues on the Council and has a good image in the community capital. Pedro Sanchez and Olaf Scholz He will lead the Red formation in these negotiations. PSOE sources recently assured that they are willing to support von der Leyen, as long as the Germans do not agree with the extreme right. To garner the votes necessary for her re-election, the current president of the European Commission has opened herself to embracing ultra-conservatives such as Giorgia Meloni. Her conditions for future alliances are what the parties will be “Pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO and pro-rule of law.”

The most open position is Substitute Josep Borrell At the forefront of community diplomacy. The name that is heard most in the corridors is that of the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Callas. His candidacy would help fill the remaining gaps, as the politician is liberal and Eastern. Kallas is also one of Vladimir Putin’s most hawkish detractors. In fact, Russia has a search and arrest warrant on him.