Wall Street’s top analysts are raising their forecasts for the S&P 500 and expect the index to top an all-time high, even though it has resisted that mark in recent weeks into late 2023 and early in the new year. Although the nine-week growth streak was broken, the target is close and the blue chip will eventually reach it as it still has some progress to make, even after rising 24% in the year ended.
Goldman Sachs’ team of analysts led by David Kostin expects campaign results for the final quarter of 2023. will exceed expectations, and, in addition, they believe that profits will continue to grow this year. “We see upside potential to our earnings per share estimate due to stronger US economic growth, lower interest rates and a weaker dollar,” they wrote in a commentary published by Bloomberg. This analysis projects S&P 500 EPS growth of 5% in 2024 to $237.
RBC estimates earnings per share are very much in line with Goldman Sachs at around $234, slightly higher than the $232 previously forecast. In this case, the analysis of Laurie Calvasina, who already correctly predicted the rally of just last year, sees the potential for the S&P 500 is 9.6%. compared to Friday’s close of 4,697 points. That is, the index will reach 5150 whole numbers, which is an upward revision compared to the previous forecast.
Analysts at UBS are also more bullish, having just upgraded the blue chips’ potential. Since last closure they see a path of 6.4% per year with reference to 5000 integers. The reason is that the organization sees a strengthening of the “soft landing” approach in the US in addition to four rate cuts this year. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) is only forecasting three, the manager is forecasting at least one more decline.
The S&P 500 has missed its all-time high of 4,796.56 in January 2022 in recent weeks. Although he was very close to surpassing them, he had not achieved it at the moment. All of these analysts believe the index will surpass its best mark this year. Although 2024 started in the red and broke a nine-week winning streak, the stock market has potential.
However, there are also less optimistic people, such as Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley. While he doesn’t rule out that the stock could have a future, he believes There is little visible on the horizon. Everything will depend on when the cuts begin and in what quantity, but until then the stock market will continue to experience volatility and changes in direction.
To see clear gains in the S&P 500, gains would need to be more significant and exceed current expectations, even though funding costs are at high levels this cycle. Then stock prices will rise significantly.
The US earnings call begins this Friday as major banks begin reporting for the final quarter of 2023. Company balance sheets will reflect how the economy digests high interest rates and private sector growth potential.