Washington is trying to prevent a new Israeli invasion of Lebanon by issuing an alert on Iran

white House This week I took advantage of the visit of the Israeli government’s number two and defense minister, Yoav GalantAttempting to defuse rising tensions between Israel and pro-Iran militias Hezbollah in Lebanon, and make a map of what will happen Middle East With possible changes following the fall of Gaza and the Iranian presidential election on Friday.

The prospect of a new Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, which would also involve Hezbollah’s great ally Iran, is of great concern USA. Washington wants to avoid the kind of regional confrontation that nearly broke out last April Tel Aviv and Tehran Eventually they launched attacks in their respective areas without the crisis escalating.

In addition, the presidential elections in Iran this Friday could affect Geopolitics of the region. Although support for Hezbollah may remain unchanged, USADepending on who the new president is, he may try an approach outside the hard line of the current Iranian supreme leader, the ayatollah. Ali KhameneiAnd thus nip the risk of regional conflict in the bud.

This is why the White House is beginning to tire of the war games of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, whose commitment to the destruction of Gaza, with Hezbollah as his next objective, looks like a flight ahead to avoid losing power. Sensible geopolitical strategy,

These early elections in Iran are being held after the death of President Ibrahim Raisi along with the Foreign Minister in a helicopter crash on May 19. Hossein Amir Abdulahian and six other officials. The Disappearance of the Ultra-Orthodoxy Rais He demonstrated several possible plays on the Middle East board for the United States, Iran’s great rival in the region.

Only one candidate interested in opening up Iran

In highly competitive election, current speaker of Iranian parliament, a conservative, leads voting intentions Mohammad Baqer Qalibafwith ultraconservative candidate Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.In addition, there are three other applicants with lower expectations.

The six have the blessing of Iran’s democratic regime, as their candidacy was approved by the Guardian Council, an election commission, which denied participation to 74 other candidates.

Although Iran’s president does not have as much influence on security policy as the Great Leader KhameneiAuthentic head of state, his management of national politics places him in a privileged position to eventually press for a larger-scale crisis, such as the one Israel could provoke with its massive incursion into southern Lebanon against the pro-Iranian militiamen of Hezbollah.

These elections are marked by a strong economic component. A large part of the Iranian population wants to recover from the sanctions imposed West and improve it Islamist monastery Not just Lao. That is why the most liberal sectors have placed their hopes on the candidate Pezeshkiana surgeon from the Azeri ethnic minority who is open-minded and deeply religious. And is also very close to Khamenei.

Pezeshkian has already hinted he might promote rapprochement with the West to ease heavy sanctions on Iran or renegotiate the nuclear deal with the United States, and some have called for a return to reformism Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), in whose government cabinet he was a minister.

But times have changed and almost everyone in Iran believes that the candidacy will happen Pezeshkian As part of a whitewashing of the Islamic regime’s image to avoid seeming inconsistent with the original text.

For fifteen years the Iranian ruling party has been almost completely closed to reformism, but the Middle East is currently experiencing a special situation after the Israeli attack on Gaza and its threats. Lebanon and Syriamakes any forecast possible. Especially if it favors US interests.

The US has no interest in war with Iran as long as the Ukraine crisis continues

Washington has no interest in a confrontation with Iran at the moment, as its ally Netanyahu appears to be advocating international charges of genocide and war crimes in his country. HoroscopeWhere Palestinian deaths are already approaching 38,000.

It is necessary to somehow fix, or at least patch, the war in Ukraine, where the tireless military machine Kremlin US efforts to turn Kiev into a Western bloc on the Russian side have failed. I don’t know who might win this war, but it doesn’t seem likely that it will be Ukraine, at least militarily.

NATO summit will be held in July Washington To celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the alliance, the White House wants to support a new European security policy, including Pacific AsiaWith the peace of mind that there are no other major wars in the Middle East in which the United States is directly or indirectly involved.

Therefore, within the framework of the visit of Daring This week in Washington, the United States sent a clear message to Netanyahu: it is essential to avoid a war in Lebanon, which would have unpredictable and devastating consequences, and could also spill over into Syria.

“We are urgently seeking a diplomatic settlement that will restore lasting peace to Israel’s northern border and allow civilians to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border,” Defense Secretary Gallant told Gallant US. lloyd austinWhom he met in Washington on Tuesday.

According to Austin, a regional war would have “dire consequences.” Middle East“So diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent further escalation.”

A “potentially apocalyptic” risk

The outgoing UN humanitarian chief expressed himself with greater dismay this Wednesday, martin griffithswho warned that the Gaza war could be the start of “something more terrible.” “Gaza has taught us a new level of tragedy and brutality,” he said, and now there is a “potentially apocalyptic” risk of the war spreading to neighboring Lebanon and Syria.

Heavy fighting between Hezbollah militiamen and Israeli troops along the border between Lebanon and Israel, the evacuation of at least 60,000 Israeli civilians from the area, and the presence of a strong contingent of the Hebrew Army in the area pointed to an imminent invasion, such as what occurred. 1982 and 2006To counter pro-Iran militias.

To escalate the situation, Netanyahu and Israeli President, Isaac Herzogvisited towns and military units near the Lebanese border this Wednesday. Herzog warned, “The international community cannot be surprised if the situation in the region deteriorates.”

Netanyahu, for his part, stressed that Israeli troops are already deployed around Lebanon in order to “achieve victory here too.”

In short, one of the reasons for the Netanyahu praetorian’s visit to Washington is the interest of President Joe Biden’s administration in knowing Israeli war plans without any shadow of a shadow.

The US has pledged to protect Israel from threats such as Iran, but there are concerns in Washington about its strategy Netanyahu in Gaza. A massacre of the Palestinian population took place in revenge for Hamas attacks on Israeli territory on 7 October.

“The meetings we are having are extremely important and will have an impact on the future of the war in Gaza and our ability to achieve our war aims, as well as developments on the northern border and in other areas,” Gallant said on his second visit to Iraq. Washington Since the Gaza war began.

Without telling the future of Gaza

One of the clarifications the US has sought relates to the future of Gaza, especially after Netanyahu indicated that Israeli military operations were about to enter the final phase of the war.

According to a State Department spokesperson, matthew millerIsrael has still not drawn up any coherent plan for the post-war period in Gaza, despite the fact that the offensive is due to end in Rafah, the city in the south of the Strip that has reportedly become the militia’s last stronghold. Hamas,

“For the lasting defeat of Hamas, there needs to be a plan to replace them (in control of Gaza). They must be replaced by a Palestinian-led government, based on realistic security plans,” Miller said.

Israel’s “new security reality”

In a candid response from Tel Aviv At US requests, Israel’s National Security Advisor, Tzachi Hanegbinoted that the post-war plan for Gaza would begin to be implemented “soon” in the north of the Strip.

This, he said, is the “new security reality” that will be imposed in the Palestinian territory, and it will not wait for the complete destruction of Hamas, “because it is A long process” Hanegbi explained, without giving any details about this post-war plan, which is probably not limited to Gaza.

In this sense, it remains to be seen how a change in Iranian leadership might affect the situation in the Middle East, including Israel, Lebanon and Gaza. USA He rejects war against Iran for now, but his close ties with Israel have all but ended, so Washington fears being dragged into Netanyahu’s warmongering.

In this sense, Gallant’s words were troubling when he said in Washington that, no matter what happens, Israel and America They are preparing “for all possible scenarios.” These could include the forced imposition of an Israeli “new security reality” across the Middle East.