What does this mean for the climate?

Exit the Paris Agreement again and extract more oil and gas

This option means “A Crossroads in Climate Policy”Clarence Edwards, executive director of the Washington DC office of think tank E3G, tells RTVE.es. “We can be confident that the new Trump administration will leave the Paris Agreement and that it will boost oil and gas extraction,” he says, cautioning that it is too early to follow through on many of his other promises on climate and energy. Matters.

One of Trump’s first measures in his first term, between 2016 and 2020, was to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, requiring practically all countries in the world to reduce their emissions and limit global temperature increase to 1.5 or 2 There was a commitment to limit it to. Degree, the limit considered safe for the planet.

His previous presidency also disintegrated “Federal Clean Energy Rule”According to Edwards, and the Republican magnate in the campaign has already gone forward that he would undo Biden’s policy in this regard, especially after the introduction of his most important climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA, Ukrainian approved). war).

Ending Biden’s climate laws is no easy task

This law was a Millionaires invest in renewable energy, batteries and electric cars, And represents the largest legislation ever adopted in the United States to combat climate change. But it will not be so easy for Trump to fulfill his promises in this regard.

“This is a law voted on by Democrats and Republicans in Congress“He will not be able to take it away. What will he be able to do,” warned Carlota García Encina, a principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute on Transatlantic Relations. “Slow down the implementation process” Yes, as the counts indicate, Republicans have also taken control of the House of Representatives.

you may also have to face Opposition from governors of many statesBoth Democrats and Republicans, because they also have powers in energy matters and they are benefiting from the legislation. “There is fundamentally no sentiment against the transition to green energy at the state level, because it is creating jobs,” says García Encina.

Since the approval of the IRA, 70% of investment projects have gone to Republican districtsWith the support of local or state leaders of this party, according to a recent analysis by Johns Hopkins University. In the traditionally Republican state of Texas, installation of renewable energy has not stopped growing and will not stop doing so under the Trump administration, cites Linda Culture, executive director of the think tank Strategic Perspectives, as an example.

Trump has 4 billion tons more CO₂

In this case, another study by the website Carbon Brief determined that a Trump victory would mean Between now and 2030, additional emissions equivalent to 4,000 million tonnes of CO₂ -the main gas responsible for climate change-, what would be emitted if Biden’s current plans were maintained.

This is an amount equal to the combined annual emissions of the European Union and Japan, or a total of how much the 140 least polluting countries emit in a year. Furthermore, this increase in carbon dioxide expelled into the atmosphere will $900 billion climate damage,

Culcher says Trump’s policy against the IRA would be “the opposite” of his promise to improve the well-being of American workers, highlighting that China “wants to dominate the global clean technology market” and He will take advantage of Washington’s exit from this competition.

“So, if (Trump) reverses or weakens the Inflation Reduction Act and companies stop modernizingAmerican competitiveness will weaken and jobs may be at risk “He wants to protect the American manufacturing industry,” he explains.

A Johns Hopkins University study warns that if the US abolishes or reduces the scope of the IRA, the country would lose up to $50 billion in factories, jobs and export profits. If you abandon the investments that this law promotes, 80 billion investment opportunities will be created for other countries, including “competitors like China”.The analysis shows.

It’s “Impossible” to Undo an Energy Shift

In any case, for Carlota García Encina, “The United States has already taken the path towards the energy transition. The United States has already taken it and it is impossible to go back“, something with which ERG’s Clarence Edwards agrees: “Despite all the partisan disputes, there is a growing consensus among the parties about the importance of industrial policy, more than people realize.”

Perhaps one side calls it “green industrial policy” and the other doesn’t, he adds, but “they want the same goal,” so Shows “optimistic” despite everything about maintaining the transition Towards renewable energy.

Republicans, moreover, “It will not be able to change economic trends” According to Culcher, that shows demand for fossil fuels is falling while the market for renewable energy is growing rapidly. All this despite the fact that the new president said “I hate the air” in a broadcast conversation with oil executives Washington Post,

A blow to climate talks at the door of COP

Beyond domestic politics, the United States has an important role in international climate governanceTrump’s victory comes days before the start of the climate summitWhich is celebrated in Azerbaijan this year. And although it will not be his team that will negotiate on behalf of his country, as he will not take office until January, it can be anticipated that this will influence the mood of the negotiations, as was the case when Trump negotiated the deal in 2016 in Marrakesh. The victory was achieved before the summit.

“Withdraw again from the Paris Agreement or even the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),” the umbrella under which climate summits are held and in which practically all the world’s countries are represented. , “This will have long-term consequences and could further reduce the flow of financing For developing countries,” says Culcher.

For the Elcano Royal Institute researcher, it would be a big deal if “the US does not participate in global negotiations on climate change”. “Dramatic setting”Not only given that it is the second country that emits the most, but also because of its leadership role in these conversations.

Meanwhile, Laurence Toubiana, the architect of the Paris Agreement and currently CEO of the European Climate Foundation, remembers the consequences of that historic agreement. “More flexible and stronger than any country’s policies”Keeping in mind that Washington has already been out of it for four years. Now, in addition, there is “a powerful push toward global change”, something that did not exist in 2016.

The moment of truth will come on January 20 next year, when Trump will once again occupy the Oval Office of the White House and demonstrate to what extent he can implement his promises of “drill, drill and drill”.