When will the northern lights return to Spain? Are they dangerous? Questions and answers about solar storms that cause them | The science

May 2024 has already proven to be a busy month for the Sun. During the first week, a series of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections created a geomagnetic storm on Earth, leaving behind the spectacle of the northern lights. Their bright colors were observed in unusual latitudes at dawn on the 10th: in Spain they appeared from Andalusia to Catalonia, as well as in Aragon and Galicia. And also in regions even further from the polar zone, such as the Canary Islands, southern USA or Mexico. Since then, eruptions have continued in the same sunny region.

For space weather scientists, the storms are welcome evidence (albeit exaggerated intensity) that the Sun is at its peak, and they expect more to arrive. On the other hand, satellite operators and managers of electrical grids and other critical technological infrastructures are assessing the consequences of this event. For those who are not experts, his appearance was spectacular and left impressive photographs. But there are also a lot of doubts. Experts in astrophysics and space weather clarify some questions and what to expect in the coming months.

Why is this happening now?

The sun is in its maximum activity phase. Auroras are caused by the interaction of the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field, and during this time of the solar cycle, which lasts 11 years, the wind is strongest. “From time to time, as in all meteorology, the solar wind can cause what we call solar magnetic storms,” explains Javier Rodríguez-Pacheco, professor of astronomy and astrophysics at the University of Alcalá.

The immediate cause is a group of sunspots known as an active region, which is about 17 times wider than Earth. Since May 8, the region has sent at least seven explosions toward Earth at speeds of up to 1,800 kilometers per second. In June 2023, this newspaper already reported a premature and intense peak in solar activity.

How bad was the storm?

Although this is a well-known and expected cycle, “the intensity is unusual,” explains Javier Armentia, astrophysicist and director of the Pamplona Planetarium. “It is normal for us to have solar and geomagnetic storms, but it is not common to see northern lights like the one that occurred on Friday the 10th. The storm is one of the largest ever recorded, but not only because of its intensity. Sometimes the material ejected by the Sun is, so to speak, the key to unlocking the highest layers of the Earth’s atmosphere,” adds Rodríguez Pacheco. NASA calls it the strongest storm to hit Earth in twenty years.

On the other hand, Consuelo Cid, who heads the National Space Weather Service, prefers not to call it too big or too small a vastness. For comparison, compare this storm to the 2003 storm, which, according to intensity units, was twice as strong as the one in May.

Are they dangerous?

In general, no. The danger is low. However, our current dependence on space technology may increase the risk. Geomagnetic storms cause changes in the structure of the ionosphere – the outer part of the Earth’s atmosphere – which can change electrical networks or stations, as well as television and radio communication lines, explains Armentia. For example, airplanes monitor such storms to avoid communication failures. According to Rodríguez Pacheco, the risk is similar to what we face with other land-based weather events such as hurricanes and depends on their intensity.

The three experts are asking for calm. “We need to overcome psychosis. I am more concerned about other phenomena that are closer to us, for example, climate change,” concludes Armentia.

Have recent storms caused damage?

Yes, but not very catastrophically. Radio and GPS communications were slightly disrupted in areas around the world. The broadband Internet connection provided by Starlink depends on more than 5,000 satellites. The company, owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, reported a temporary deterioration in the quality of its signals. As a precaution, some satellites have stopped conducting scientific observations, such as the X-ray Observatory. Chandrafrom NASA, which removed its instruments to protect them from radiation.

On May 10, NASA said it did not foresee any threat to the four American and three Russian astronauts aboard the International Space Station. There are three people on board the Chinese space station Tiangongand there were no reports of precautions taken there.

How are earthly communications protected?

After the 1989 geomagnetic storm that caused major power outages in Quebec, or the 2012 storm that caused large economic losses in China, agencies stepped up efforts to improve protection from these solar events. According to Armenia, two things are needed to reduce damage: prediction and prevention. “Since 2010, there have been great technological advances that allow us to improve solar activity forecasts. Prevention works.”

That’s what Rodriguez-Pacheco, the principal investigator of the space mission’s Energetic Particle Detector instrument, is doing. Solar orbiter, from the European Space Agency (ESA) in collaboration with NASA. The international collaboration project works with instruments that look at the Sun to answer important science questions about the star, he said. One of its goals is to understand how the wind it emits affects the planets of the solar system, especially Earth, and thus improve the prediction and prevention of these events.

When will the next one happen?

This can happen at any time. While Seed’s National Space Meteorology Service refrains from making forecasts with exact dates, it explains that the Sun’s active region is currently on the side we can’t see, although it estimates the next geomagnetic storm will be possible in the first week of June. And he warns that they will be repeated for at least another two years. It is currently impossible to predict whether these storms will cause auroras.

Scientists expect the current solar cycle to peak at maximum activity sometime this year due to the number of sunspots they observe. The strongest storms typically occur months or years after this peak.

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