Who stopped the far right in France? This is how the ‘siege’ against Le Pen worked | International

The mobilisation against Marine Le Pen’s party worked. Although the National Regroupment (RN) started as the favourite, it finished in third place (with 143 delegates) behind the Ensemble – Macron’s party – (168) and the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (182).

The far-right won half of the districts in the first round. This colored most of France in dark blue:

But the vote went to a second ballot. The RN found itself trailing in many areas it had won in the first round, losing to the Ensemble or New Popular Front (NFP).

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The first step for this turn to happen was withdrawal. Before the second round of voting, dozens of candidates from the NFP and Ensemble – where they had competed with the extreme right and came third in the first round – withdrew. The aim was to encourage their supporters to combine their votes into a single option against Le Pen. And it worked. Voters coordinated.

Which voters formed the circle?

Surveys help us better understand how votes have been coordinated in each constituency, according to the participating candidates.

Some of the most repeated dichotomies were between the extreme right of the RN and the centrists of the Ensemble. And faced with this dilemma, and according to Ipsos data, voters to the left of the NFP have voted massively for Macron’s party. 72% did just that, compared to 25% who doubted or abstained from voting, and 3% who went from the left to vote for the extreme right.

Voters on the liberal right also swung the vote: 53% of Los Republicans voters in the first round voted for Ensemble in the second round, while 26% chose RN as their second choice.

Another relevant focus was on constituencies where right-wing and far-right candidates faced off. There, Macron voters mostly chose to vote for the Republicans (79%), as did the left (70%).

The third focus was on the districts where the RN faced an NFP candidate. In addition, in this case it was relevant to know which party the left-wing candidate belonged to: would there be the same coordination with a socialist as with a candidate from France Insoumise, the most radical party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon?

According to Ipsos, most centrists chose to vote for the left rather than the far right. They did so especially when the NFP candidate was a socialist or environmentalist, giving them 54% of the vote (compared to 15% given to the RN). But also with a candidate from La Francia Insumisa (43% to 19%).

Many voters on the liberal right also preferred the left over the RN. When Republican voters had to choose between the NFP and the RN, they were divided into three roughly equal groups: 36% doubted or abstained, 36% voted for the RN, and 26%–29% did so for the left.

Vote count confirms coordination against far right

We have analysed 351 constituencies where the extreme right candidate of the RN faced a candidate from the NFP, Ensemble or Los Républicains. When the number of candidates was reduced to two in the first round, the votes of the two options increased in these districts, but with very different intensities: the extreme right grew by an average of 7 points per district and their opponent by 23 points.

As the previous graph shows, in 99% of duels the RN opponent has seen a greater increase in its support than the far-right formation. There are extreme cases, such as the case of the first constituency of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department, where the Ensemble received 27% of the vote in the first round, in the second round it received 67% of the vote, i.e. an increase of 40 points.

In general, as surveys have shown, coordination has been higher when RN’s opponent was a centre- or moderate-right candidate, although coordination with candidates on the left is also evident.

And now that? A potential majority

Sunday’s results cleared up one question—the extreme right will not govern with an absolute majority—but left one question: who will? The numbers do not give any bloc a majority, neither the left nor Macronism. If the two are able to agree on a prime minister and form a stable and lasting government, the way is open for a grand coalition between them.

One of the options would involve a pact between Macron’s supporters and the left without Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has about 78 of the New Popular Front’s 182 deputies (though some did not appear under the party’s acronym). But that center-left total has 272 seats and does not reach a majority of 289. To be viable, they need the support of the moderate right, the Republicans, or a handful of miscellaneous endorsements.

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