Who will get majority in the elections in France? Scenario according to estimates and surveys | International

The French will vote this Sunday in the second round of legislative elections to complete the composition of the National Assembly. Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN), which was the most voted force in the first round, is once again the favourite to obtain the maximum number of seats. But how likely is their majority?

Below we analyze three scenarios using the first round results and…

The French will vote this Sunday in the second round of legislative elections to complete the composition of the National Assembly. Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (RN), which was the most voted force in the first round, is once again the favourite to win the most seats. But how likely is their majority?

Below we analyse three scenarios using the first round results and the latest surveys.

what happened on sunday

In the first round, 77 of the 577 members of the Assembly were elected – receiving more than 50% of the total votes and more than 25% of those registered. The remaining districts will be resolved by a new vote this Sunday.

According to the electoral system, the two highest-polling candidates in the first round and those who pass the vote threshold of 12.5% ​​of the census will be in the second round, which has already eliminated several candidates. In addition, there have been withdrawals: dozens of candidates from the New Popular Front (NFP) and the left of Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition (Ensemble) have withdrawn. They have done so when they were competing with the extreme right and were third parties to encourage their voters to show up belt This brings together the vote against Le Pen into one option.

The graph summarizes the contests in the 577 districts, showing decided and pending contests:

To know what happens outside is to understand what will happen inside, don’t miss anything.

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Next, to calculate what the parliament would look like, we will solve for each pending district under different assumptions. The first two scenarios are theoretical cases, extreme and unlikely, but useful as a reference. The third is our central or most likely scenario.

Theoretical scenario: without coordination

The first hypothesis is to assume that in the second round people vote exactly the same as in the first round. Voters for classified candidates repeat, and those who voted for the eliminated candidate stay at home. In this scenario, the extreme right of the National Regrouping could reach a majority, around 294 seats, 5 more than the required 289 seats.

However, this scenario is unrealistic. It is certain that some voters of eliminated or withdrawn candidates will now decide to choose their second or worst choice. This calculation is useful to understand that, for the extreme right to reach a majority, it hardly needs any coordination against it.

Another theoretical scenario: the great ‘siege’

The other extreme case is to assume that there is a great deal of coordination against national regrouping. Specifically, that all voters in the first round in each constituency vote for the New Popular Front when their candidate is not an alternative; and vice versa, that all those in the NFP vote for Ensemble against the extreme right when the candidate from the left is not in the second vote.

Under these assumptions, the national regrouping would be far from an absolute majority with only 145 seats; the left would have 223 and Macron around 146.

But then again, this scenario is not realistic either. First, because not all voters from the New Popular Front and Ensemble are going to follow their parties’ slogans. And second, because the national regrouping will also win over voters from other parties that are not in the second round. How can we predict these flows? The solution is to look at surveys, which brings us to our central scenario.

Central scenario: Voters are moving as surveys suggest

Surveys these days allow us to predict how those who voted for each party in the first round will act in the second round. For example, according to pollster Cluster17, in a duel between the NFP and the RN, 30% of Ensemble voters would choose the former and only 12% would choose the latter (the rest don’t know or will be absent). Similarly, with Ensemble and RN facing each other, 42% of NFP voters would make that circle sacred.

Thanks to this data we can make better predictions. We go constituency by constituency, moving votes from the first round to the second, depending on 1) which candidates are running, and 2) what the flow of voters will be like whose first choice no longer exists. The following graph shows the final results under these assumptions:

In this central scenario, the Assembly would be fragmented. The National Regroupment would be the first force with about 200 representatives, but they do not look close to an absolute majority. They are followed by the New Popular Front, with about 180, and the Ensemble, with about 130; the Republicans, along with other right-wing parties, would add about 50 seats. The rest of the candidates share the other twenty.

This result would open up two scenarios. One is a blockade. Potential coalitions do not succeed in reaching or coming close to a majority of 289 seats, or their parties are unable to agree. The second scenario is a grand coalition. In the last days of the campaign, the center and the moderate left sympathetic to Macron (the part of the New Popular Front that excludes its most radical sector, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon) have publicly discussed the idea of ​​a coalition to govern, which could also include the moderate right. It will not be easy. First, they must give you the numbers. And second, overcome programmatic differences and the absence of a Fifth Republic in France, the current constitutional system based on strong presidential power, of coalition culture. The alternative is a parliamentary blockade, with the incumbent not able to appoint a prime minister without a majority. And an additional problem arises: the constitution does not allow new legislative elections for another year.

Of course, this central scenario is still a guess. For example, there were many people in the surveys who answered “I don’t know” when asked about their second choice in a hypothetical duopoly or triangle. Those undecided people are not very predictable. Coordination against the National Rally may be greater, but we may also be surprised by a greater pull of votes toward Le Pen.

However, our estimate essentially coincides with others that the best French pollsters are publishing these days. According to Harris, the National Regrouping will stay around 190 and 220 seats; IFOP gives them 210-240 and Elabe between 200 and 230. Pollsters agree that the likely result is a fragmented lower house, with no majority for the extreme right, although they remain cautious. With any result, from an absolute majority for the RN to a blocked Chamber or an extreme right-wing Grand Alternative coalition, France will find itself from Sunday night in an unprecedented situation in the Fifth Republic.

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