Will the French government make it to Christmas?

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced a series of concessions after holding crisis meetings this week (including with far-right leader Marine Le Pen), but will they be enough to prevent the overthrow of his government at the end of the year? Will it be enough?

Le Pen was at the prime minister’s office in Matignon on Monday morning as part of a series of crisis meetings organized by Barnier with opposition party leaders.

As the debate over the 2025 budget reaches its final stages, the French government faces the prospect of being toppled by opposition parties in a fractured National Assembly, where no party has been elected since snap legislative elections in July. Doesn’t have majority.

Barnier has been prime minister since early September, but he is currently trying to pass his first major legislation: Budget 2025. This is no ordinary budget: France’s rising deficit means the budget includes RSpending cuts of 40,000 million euros, in addition to tax increases of 20,000 million euros of the euro, and so it has proved extremely unpopular.

Adding to the problems is the fact that there is a constitutionally imposed timetable for the budget, which must be voted on by both houses before the end of the current parliamentary session on December 21, and legislated by December 31.

For the budget to be approved, it must receive the green light from the Senate and the National Assembly (the final vote has yet to be taken, but the National Assembly has already refused to approve an earlier version of the bill, and a second vote takes place ) possibly even unsuccessful).

In that situation, Barnier has the option of using a constitutional device called Article 49.3, which allows him to push the bill through Parliament without a vote, but if he does so, opposition parties face censure. Has the right to present a proposal. If a simple majority of representatives in the Assembly support this motion, Barnier would have to resign and his government would fall.

The mathematics of divided Parliament suggests that if a coalition of leftist parties is called New Popular Front (NFP) And Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) supports the motion, so they will have enough votes to win a majority. Neither the left nor the far right have enough votes to achieve this on their own, so to succeed they would have to vote in favor of a motion of no confidence submitted by the other.

The NFP has already indicated that it will file a motion of no-confidence if Barnier uses 49.3 (and, indeed, the group has already filed several no-confidence motions since September, none of which were strong enough to succeed. Not supported). Le Pen had previously said her party would not support such proposals, but last week she appeared to change her mind and hinted that her delegates might eventually vote in favor.

Barnier is known for being a patient negotiator (remember those difficult years trying to negotiate a Brexit deal between the UK and the EU) and has already announced some commitments, including Planned increase in regulated electricity tariffs.

The Prime Minister hopes that he will be able to persuade key opposition leaders to support the budget so that he will not have to invoke Article 49.3 or, failing that, abstain in a subsequent vote of no confidence.

It remains to be seen whether her concessions will be enough: it has been suggested that Le Pen is also affected by her current embezzlement trial, which could lead to her being banned from standing in the 2027 elections.

No budget for 2025 would certainly be a problem, especially for financial markets and France’s debt rating. Government spokesperson, Maud Brazenwarned in an interview published in the newspaper “Le Parisien” that France was risking A “Greek-style position” If the executive was overthrown, referring to the Greek financial crisis of 2007–2008.

A person whose work is not directly affected is the President Emmanuel Macron, Since in France the President and Parliament are elected separately. If Barnier is ousted, Macron would remain president (unless he decides to resign; he has been asked to do so, but this is considered unlikely). Additionally, Macron will have to try to form a new government, since in France the prime minister is appointed by the president rather than directly elected.

The basic problem is that Parliament is blocked, making it difficult for Macron to find a prime minister who has the support of his deputies (more than two months of negotiations were necessary to settle Barnier as prime minister in September ).

Legally and constitutionally, nothing prevents Macron from reappointing Barnier as prime minister, although that would immediately risk triggering another vote of no confidence.

Macron cannot call another election: the Constitution provides for this At least 12 months must elapse between parliamentary elections (The normal parliamentary term is five years), which would take us to June 2025 at the earliest. Meanwhile, France will have to make do somehow.