Donald Trump has scheduled three rallies in North Carolina (in Charlotte, Greensboro and Kingston) for the final weekend of the campaign. He will also return on Monday to perform another show in Raleigh. He expects more than 45,000 people to gather in these four events. This is proof of how much importance candidates give to decisive states. Both the former president and his rival Kamala Harris have focused two-thirds to three-quarters of their events on the campaign trail in the last two months. On the other hand, more than 30 out of 50 states did not see either of the two presidential candidates pass during the entire campaign.
With the Electoral College system, in which the winner of a state takes all of its delegates, it is not effective to campaign in places where the difference between the two is too great. All attention is focused on the 93 electoral votes concentrated in those seven districts, as well as the votes from one district in Nebraska that could break the tie in a relatively likely combination. A few tens or hundreds of thousands of votes in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada hold the keys to the White House.
With its 19 electoral votes and a technical tie in the elections, it is the most decisive of the swing states. Almost all of Kamala Harris’s options include winning there. Democrats will tour the state with three rallies on Monday: in Allentown looking for the Latino vote; in industrial Pittsburgh, and in Philadelphia, the state’s largest city. Trump will make a double appearance on Monday in Latin Reading and Pittsburgh. The Latino vote—and especially the Puerto Rican vote—could be crucial.
The last time a Republican won an election without carrying Georgia, which now has 16 electoral votes, was Ronald Reagan in 1980 (his opponent, Jimmy Carter, was from that state). Biden won there by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, breaking a streak of six consecutive Republican victories since 1996. If Trump doesn’t win there, his chances of being elected president become more complicated. At the moment, they seem to be gaining some ground in the polls. The degree of mobilization of the black vote could tip the balance.
Of the seven decisive states, this is the only state that Joe Biden did not win in 2020. However, this time the elections have become tough in a state where the rural-urban dichotomy is huge and in which the mobilization of black votes could be a surprise. Trump has held four rallies there in recent days, proof that he doesn’t have it all. The campaign is marked by the passage of devastating storms Helen And for Trump’s deception about emergency federal aid.
Joe Biden received a significant penalty vote in the Michigan primaries for his support of Israel in the Gaza war. Abstention or voting for the minority options of Arab Americans could be important in a state where the two candidates are also fighting for the votes of workers and their helpers in the automobile industry. Sector union presidents clearly support Harris, but their base is more divided. Still, Democrats appear to be making minimal gains in the state with 15 electoral votes.
The only definitive state that borders Mexico is Arizona. Immigration has been Trump’s main warhorse during the campaign. His xenophobic message has not stopped him from increasing his support among Latino voters, with a strong presence in the state, which accounts for 11 electoral votes. The Democrats hope to consolidate their voters thanks to the referendum on abortion and the senatorial elections taking place in parallel with the presidential elections, but for the time being Trump seems to have the advantage.
Experts believe that the easiest path to victory for Harris is to win in the so-called Rust Belt states. If the Democrat wins Pennsylvania and Michigan (which is already quite an assumption) it would theoretically be enough for her to add 10 more electoral votes with a win in Wisconsin and reach the 270 needed to become president. . To break the wall, Republicans held their convention in Milwaukee, the state’s largest city. Harris seems to be getting some benefit.
Of the seven decisive states, Nevada has the fewest votes in the Electoral College: only six. Both Harris and Trump have paths to victory, even if they lose there, but they could become essential wild cards in a dozen combinations. The forces there are absolutely equal. Trump tried to woo Las Vegas hospitality workers by offering them a tip tax break, but Harris won out. The Latino vote could also be decisive.
There are two states in which the winner does not receive all of the Electoral College votes: Maine and Nebraska. The Omaha district in Nebraska offers Democratic-leaning votes, but is less assured. If Harris wins in Blue Wall and Trump wins in the remaining states, retaining them will be decisive to avoid a tie at 269 electoral votes. If this assumption were to occur, the President would be elected by the House of Representatives and the Vice President by the Senate, but through state delegations. In that case, Republicans Donald Trump and JD Vance would be the favorites.
(Tags to translate) US election
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