A metaphor and 11 cards to understand what’s going on

Understanding what is happening in the Middle East since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 is complicated. Areas as far away as Gaza or Pakistan already involve about a dozen countries, with countless names of terrorist groups (of which the Houthis are almost an old acquaintance) and with cross attacks between countries, areas by three different countries. There has been bombing and the permanent threat of regional war involving powerful nuclear powers.

To understand how we got to this point, a good metaphor is to place some dominoes upright next to each other, and resort to the “domino effect” or “snowball effect” which captures the essence of dominoes. Defines very well. Geopolitics. This theory has no recognized originator, but is usually attributed to US President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who, in complete logic at the time, attributed it to the communist world. The message was clear: if its spread in one country was not stopped, it would spread in a spiral to its neighbours.

Following this logic, the finger moving the line of chips is Hamas which infiltrated Israel and carried out attacks against Jewish settlements and a music festival, Resulting in over 1,100 deaths. The terrorist attack forces a response from Israel, which begins military operations in Gaza with two fundamental objectives: freeing the hostages taken by Hamas and destroying all the facilities of this group. In its fall, the Israeli token also devalued the Lebanese token, which has been complicit in the attacks carried out from its soil by the terrorist group Hezbollah and the related Israeli response.

The fourth file is from the West Bank, which documents clashes with military actions by Israeli forces, and The last country in the region that survived until that moment was Syria.Which will face three separate attacks within weeks: from the United States against Iranian groups, from Israel against targets in Tehran and from Iran against Islamic militias.

This conflict extends till 2024

With five pieces of this complex board, the year 2023 ended, but it was nothing more than a full stop. In January, attacks on ships entering the Red Sea by militants of the Houthi faction in Yemen, resulting in a global threat, forced the intervention of an international coalition of 20 countries and Bombing by American and British air forces, The conflict has already spread to the south of the Arabian Peninsula.

But there will still be three chips left to fall. is one of them Iraq, whose territory suffers attacks from the United States, which is pursuing Iranian targets, and also from Iran, which claims to locate members of the Israeli secret services, Mossad. The conflict reaches a new dimension with the entry of the Ayatollah regime, which after bombing Iraq makes an unexpected – and very dangerous – maneuver by bombing Sunni groups on Pakistani soil (the majority Muslim faction in its rival Saudi Arabia). Does.

The attack further escalates the conflict geographically and strategically, as it forces Pakistan to respond with a similar attack on Iranian soil, this time against facilities where it claims enemy terrorist groups harbor. Have been. Now 10 countries have joined it.

Another missing would be South Africa, which stands trial before the International Criminal Court in The Hague (Netherlands) amid the attacks, accusing Israel of genocide.

In total, 11 countries joined in just four months. Will the domino effect end here? The Eisenhower doctrine would certainly have advised intervention sooner.