According to mathematics, the Ukraine war will last for at least three more years.

According to mathematics, the Ukraine war will last for at least three more years.Europa Press

Mathematically, the war in Ukraine could last until 2027 and cost the lives of 300,000 soldiers. These are probabilistic estimates and do not take into account political, diplomatic, alliance and weapons variables on both sides.

Connected

A big unknown arising from the second anniversary of the Ukrainian war is how long it might last, difficult to predict due to the complexity of the conflict, although mathematics can, perhaps, shed some light on that possible future.

He delta t logicproposed by astronomer Richard Gott IIIA statistical method that attempts to estimate the total duration of an ongoing event based only on the time that has occurred so far.

This method is based on principle of indifferenceWhich holds that there is no particular reason to observe an event at any particular time in its entire duration.

two years of war

Gott’s delta T argument is based on the premise that, given the lack of additional information, any time we observe an event is equally likely to be some fraction of its total duration. Gott proposes that, with 95% confidence, the total duration of an event will be between 0.39 and 2.5 times the duration observed so far.

If we want to apply the delta t logic to the duration of the Ukraine war, we first establish that the war began on February 24, 2022. Since it is February 2024, the war has been going on for almost two years.

Following the delta T argument, with 95% confidence, the total duration of the war would be between 0.39 and 2.5 times the duration observed so far. This means that the total duration of the Ukrainian War could be between approximately 0.78 years (9.36 months) and 5 years from its beginning.

lost opportunity

Since the war began on February 24, 2022, applying the delta T logic, we can establish that the lower bound of the total duration will be approximately 9.36 months from the beginning, which leads us to November 2022,

What we know about it is that that date experienced significant events in the war: in late 2022, Ukraine launched counter-offensives in the south and east.

Shortly afterwards, Russia declared annexation of four partially occupied provinces. In November, Ukraine recaptured parts of Kherson Oblast. These are efforts that could have meant something important, but in the end the war continued.

Demonstration in Belgrade on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

February 2027

But the delta T argument also establishes an upper limit on the duration of the war, which will be 5 years after it begins, which leads us to February 2027. This means there will still be three years of hostilities left.

Therefore, according to the Delta T logic and without considering other factors, with 95% probability, the Ukrainian war could end in November 2022 or continue until February 2027.

fatal hunt

There is another probabilistic estimate that arises from applying another powerful mathematical tool: the so-called doomsday argumentProposed in 1983 by theoretical physicists from the Laboratory Universelle et Theories of the CNRS, brandon carter

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This formula estimates that humanity will disappear in just 4,500 years (with a confidence level of 90%) and can also be applied to the current war between Ukraine and Russia to determine how long it will take before the war ends. How many more deaths will there be first?

The mathematical logic according to the Doomsday Argument is as follows: Let n The total number of deaths that occurred until the war ended. Happen n Number of deaths so far. Let the ratio of m be m = n/N; Then m is uniformly distributed in the probability interval (0, 1).

300,000 soldiers

This logic implies that there is a 95% probability that the total number of deaths will be among 95% of the final deaths that occur during the war, which is equal to the interval (0.05, 1).

Given that there are now 31,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers and 120,000 dead Russian soldiers, not counting civilian victims, the total number of deaths by the time the war ends according to the Doomsday argument could be in the estimated range of 7,550 to 151,000. . This estimate is subject to the limitations and assumptions of doomsday logic and the variations inherent in an ongoing armed conflict.

statistical method

In short, according to the mathematics, there could still be three more years of war in Ukraine and the final number of dead soldiers on both sides would be around 300,000.

It is important to remember that this method is purely statistical and does not take into account the specific complexities of conflict, such as international politics, economics, military capability, and the will of the parties involved. Therefore, any prediction based on this logic alone should be taken with caution.

Although without forgetting that, based only on the Delta T argument, Gott predicted in 1969 that the Berlin Wall would fall around 1990 and in any case it would not be standing until 1993. The Berlin Wall fell on November 9, 1989.