Bernardo Arévalo and the challenge of tearing down the “corrupt pact” wall in Guatemala

Bernardo Arévalo assumed the presidency of Guatemala on Sunday after a difficult obstacle course that almost doomed the investiture. The leader of the Semilla movement, a progressive sociologist specializing in conflict resolution, won elections last August and has faced repeated attempts by a sector of the judiciary over the past five months to thwart the transition. He…

Bernardo Arévalo assumed the presidency of Guatemala on Sunday after a difficult obstacle course that almost doomed the investiture. The leader of the Semilla movement, a progressive sociologist specializing in conflict resolution, won elections last August and has faced repeated attempts by a sector of the judiciary over the past five months to thwart the transition. The public ministry headed by Consuelo Porras, an official sanctioned in 2022 by the United States Department of State for corruption, attempted unsuccessfully to disqualify his training and even cancel the electoral process. What was witnessed in the Congress of the Central American country on Sunday, in which the investiture ceremony was delayed by nine hours due to the actions of a group of delegates, was the umpteenth example of a network of powers doing everything possible to obstruct the mandate. Makes promises. of the new president, who in recent weeks had condemned the coup attempt.

This conspiracy is known in Guatemala as the “corrupt pact”, an agreement between the political, economic and judicial sectors that prospered during the periods of Jimmy Morales and Alejandro Giammattei, whose government was marked by profound institutional decline. it was done. The fight against corruption is the key to everything. This accounted for Arévalo’s unexpected victory, in the wake of the growing social fatigue generated by the 2015 student protests. And now on to the government program and its main constraints.

“The first obstacle facing the president is a public ministry that tried to prevent him from taking office and will probably now try to limit his ability to govern,” said Ricardo Sáenz de Sáenz, political scientist and professor in the School of History and Anthropology. Tejada says. and Archeology of the University of San Carlos of Guatemala. After taking office, Arévalo himself acknowledged that he would face “enormous challenges” to root out corrupt practices. One of his first actions, as he announced weeks ago, will be to demand the resignation of Consuelo Porras, although in all likelihood he will have to deal with resistance from the Attorney General. “As long as public ministries remain in the hands of illegal networks, there is a serious challenge,” says Saenz de Tejada. But administration of justice is only one of the fronts related to corruption. Another issue concerns economic management, an important area for one of the central goals of the President, who proposes to deepen the fight against poverty, which affects 55% of the population.

According to the political scientist, it is about business, its transparency and even legality that has been questioned, that has already compromised Giammattei’s executive. “This includes a container terminal in one of the Pacific ports, oil concessions and roads that the government will have to address.” It also includes other structural challenges such as infrastructure, health system, education and delays during the COVID-19 pandemic, problems with rural schools and security, following a mandate that has also been characterized by harassment of opponents. With justice officials dedicated to the fight against corruption.

However, in the opinion of Marylos Chang, a political scientist and co-founder of Red Ciudadana, an organization specializing in transparency, “We are at the weakest moment of the dominant political coalition that had co-opted the most important institutions in the country, from the executive to the legislature. Or to the post of head of a public ministry.” “If we were in January 2023 and you had told me that Bernardo Arévalo and Samuel Pérez were going to become President of the Republic and Congress, respectively, no one would have believed it,” Chang adds. “It doesn’t mean that they have been defeated, but that they have become very weak.” Even the poison session of the Congress Constitution ended in the background without any concern show

In a field of MLAs, with a positive balance for the Semilla movement, which has 23 seats out of 160. “One of Arévalo’s challenges, first of all, is to fulfill his campaign promise to fight corruption, but Congress, along with the presidency, can do that by putting together a package of reforms that can reduce these holes and black holes. We didn’t even know that a few weeks ago, what we imagined was a Congress that was completely hostile to the president,” he argued.

If there is room for optimism, for political analyst Raquel Zelaya, Arévalo “knows that she has to control the hyper-expectation that arises”. “He has talked about the fight against corruption and his mandate should start with making the executive transparent. You can do this, no nepotism or favoritism or poorly made contracts. And accountability,” says Zelaya, president of think tank Association for Research and Social Studies (ASIES). In short, in his opinion the President has to start by example and, in the meantime, try to reach agreements, since legislative activity is one of his main challenges.

Arévalo had two decisive performers in the opening act who protected the transition and, ultimately, prevented the relay from going poorly. Guatemala’s indigenous peoples resisted pressure during more than 100 days of resistance, which began on October 2, at the hands of authorities from 48 cantons of Totonicapán. Marylos Chang believes that this powerful indigenous organization today is “a new actor with power that is going to be an important force, but not necessarily an ally of Arévalo,” who represents another challenge to the president. Is. The second actor is the so-called international community, which has deployed a very broad block of support for Arévalo, with the United States, the European Union and Latin American governments such as the Colombian Gustavo Petro or the Chilean Gabriel Boric. , His role would be decisive during the mandate as it was in the long transition to prevent the forces of the “corrupt compromise” from thwarting deep change, which is supported by more than 60% of Guatemalan voters.

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