Break the government or redirect relations with the United States

The United States conditioned its military aid to Israel on offensive ammunition. Do not conduct any “major military operation” in the densely populated city of Rafah, south of Gaza. Where there are now 1.2 million Palestinian refugees fleeing the war from other areas of the enclave.

This is not the first time that the United States has threatened or imposed sanctions on its military shipments to Israel. Almost from the beginning of relations between the two countries, a state of war remained in place, in the face of Israeli attitude, which the Americans interpreted as inflexibility, resulting in restrictions on military material.

In Suez Canal Crisis 1956HePresident Eisenhower threatened to impose sanctions on Israel, Years later, one president told his Secretary of State: “The United States will not isolate itself from the rest of the world to support Israeli intransigence.” Was From Gerald Ford to Henry Kissinger When the United States was trying to mediate a Sinai withdrawal agreement between Israel and Egypt in March 1975 following the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The Ford administration succeeded in doing so because of endless discussions and Israeli delays. Delay in supply of F-15 aircraft.

there was also events of the 80s And even in the ongoing war. analyst Alon Pincus He told the newspaper Haaretz that in all cases they were specific and temporary delays that happened quietly and were intended to send a message without damaging the relationship.

What is different about the current crisis is that it has been made public

Organized shipping included 1,800 907 kg bombs

, 1,700 226 kg bombs and possibly JDAM Kitthe ammunition that converts “dumb” bombwho cause harm indiscriminately, in precision guided bombs, However, it should be remembered that US President Joe Biden said in the same interview on CNN in which he announced he was stopping this shipment, that no defensive aid to Israel was being stopped. Additionally, Congress approved Biden’s request in April $14 billion emergency arms deal for IsraelAnd last week authorized a shipment of ammunition worth $827 million.

Analysts say the brake on Biden is due to the attitude of Netanyahu, who ignores his ally’s requests and does not present any plan for Gaza. This Friday, the United States government confirmed that it is possible that the Israeli military has used weapons provided by Washington in Gaza in a manner “inconsistent” with international humanitarian law in the seven months that the Israeli military has been in the Strip. The campaign is going on. , The State Department acknowledged in a report that “it is appropriate to assess whether Israeli security forces conducted ‘NSM-20’ operations since October 7 in a manner inconsistent with their obligations under international humanitarian law or with established best practices to minimize harm.” Civilians have access to defense articles.

Days before Israel’s Independence Day, Netanyahu said: “During the war of independence 76 years ago, we were few against many. We had no weapons, there was an arms embargo on Israel, but with the strength of spirit, bravery and unity within us, we achieved victory. Today we are very strong. We are determined and united to defeat our enemy and those who seek to destroy us. If we have to be alone we will be”, in reference to the interruption of American ammunition shipments.

On similar lines, the Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrichtweeted: “When the State of Israel was established, we were forced to declare it despite the strong opposition of Secretary of State Marshall of the Truman Administration. We also faced war with the embargo imposed by the United States Fell.” ,

“one more time, Despite President Biden’s reaction and arms embargo, today we will achieve complete victory in this war., We have no choice, because this war is existential and anything less than complete victory will jeopardize the existence of the Jewish state. Danger,” Smotrich continued.

A literal existential threat?

Mandatory military entry into Rafah is highly discussed in Israel. If Netanyahu has any hesitation in this regard, it will be because of the American and international pressure against it and the extreme right wing of his government coalition which is pushing for its implementation. But there are also forces that indicate that attempting to eliminate the remaining Hamas battalions and free the hostages is the appropriate step, and there are also forces that say that these battalions are not relevant and that the costs of that operation would outweigh the benefits. In comparison, because it is not a strategic city.

The Israeli army ordered the evacuation of the civilian population from more areas of eastern Rafah this Saturday, six days after launching military operations in that city in the south of the Gaza Strip, as well as from several points in the north of the enclave. Where the allegation is that Hamas is rebuilding its capabilities. The evacuation order affects the Rafah and Shabura camps as well as the Adari and Jenina neighborhoods; Those told to go to the “humanitarian zone” of Al Mawasi, a coastal area already filled with displaced people in makeshift tents without running water or sanitation.

“Israel cannot play without America”

“I am also caught in this dilemma,” says Alberto Spectorovsky, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University. “Because I see that the military experts themselves are divided.”

Spektorovsky believes that if Israel takes everything and enters the southern city of Gaza, “Netanyahu will remain in power, managing this endless war, and Israel will remain more isolated than Russia.” Without American support. I’m a Bengurionist in the sense, I think Israel can’t play without America,

According to academics, Netanyahu’s resentment towards Biden may be due to the Israeli Prime Minister’s desire to change the government to his ally.

Spectorovsky believes that the lack of design of a plan for Gaza by the Israeli President the next day is due to the fact Netanyahu’s government prefers a weakened Hamas in the Strip, but not Hamas over any other organization.

For this reason, experts are inclined to think that Israeli military entry into Rafah will remain in the same state as it is at the moment.

“Sinwar knows he’s playing,” the professor says, referring to Yahia Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza. “They are protesting, as if to press for talks, but I don’t feel that Sinwar is being influenced by this. He knows Israel must surrender

, And there is peace, waiting.”

This expert and others say that this war may last a long time. This ambiguity, laid out in five-year, ten-year data, takes on an unbearable dimension for the families of hostages held in Gaza, not to mention the Gazans under Israeli bombs. “And that extension in time is good for Sinwar and good for Netanyahu.”Spectorovsky says.

Netanyahu does not want international troops in Gaza because it would benefit Hamas, the academic says, “which can remain as it is because international powers will not condemn it.” “The Palestinian National Authority (PNA) does not want to stay in Gaza and if it did, it would benefit Hamas, who could be ‘irresponsible’ and the PNA would be the one to take the blame for what is not working.”

And, thus, between the Israeli leadership and the Strip, a wicked compromise has been created, as Spectorovsky describes, with a return to the panorama of October 6. “More of the same, and for many more years.”The teacher moans.