By Xavier Mas de Xaxas, Iran is sinking and becoming radicalized

The Iranian theocracy lost popular support years ago and cannot survive today without strong internal repression. The regime is in the hands of the extreme right and its only objective is to remain in power. The political and military elite, the Ayatollahs, the judges and the military, the guardians of the revolution and the police serve only their own interests, which is above all economic. Power is a tool not for the management of public affairs and social change, but for personal enrichment.

The death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a plane crash forced the regime to close ranks. This means an immediate search for another hardliner capable of crushing any popular rebellion and neutralizing any maneuver by dissident clerics and politicians.

The population lives under a strong economic crisis, which is the result of international sanctions and the corruption of the ruling class. The average inflation of the last ten years is more than 25% and this quarter is around 40%. The rial is trading lower than ever against the dollar and euro. Meanwhile, the elite get richer by selling oil to Russia and China and also by selling drones and missiles to the Russian military.

Over the past two years, the regime has killed hundreds of women to suppress their protests against the obligation to cover their heads with scarves. Students and workers joined them. They shouted “Women, life and freedom.” Thousands of them were jailed.

Raisi supervised this repression and authorized public executions as a lesson. He did not believe in talks with the opposition. He had everything to become the third supreme leader after Ali Khamenei, who like himself was an extremist and individualist cleric.

The population no longer participates in the electoral farce. In the parliamentary elections in March, the number of abstentions reached 60%. A few days ago, only 10 percent people voted in the by-election held in Tehran. Citizens understand that candidates owe loyalty to an interest group and do not need the legitimacy of the ballot box.

Raisi won the 2021 presidential election with the lowest number of votes in the history of the republic. He replaced Hassan Rouhani, who was very popular. During his tenure Iran and America signed the nuclear deal. In particular, reforms in the system were proposed to give more freedom to women.

Khamenei, who rules as if he were an autocratic pope, blocked the reformist path by elevating Raisi. Reform efforts threaten the economic fiefdom of the Revolutionary Guards, the paramilitary force that manages the economy, and also the axis of resistance, the coalition of militias fighting Israel and its allies.

Khamenei and the extremists around him want nothing to do with the West. Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and various armed groups in Iraq and Syria are lethal weapons to them. The objective is to cause maximum damage without provoking a regional conflict.

The worst that could happen for Iran is that it would have to deal with the forces of Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Sunni monarchies of the Gulf. It would not resist due to lack of military quality and internal support. The opposition, now divided, will seize the opportunity.

Grand Ayatollahs in Qom and Najaf criticized Raisi’s repression against women and those standing in solidarity with them. Many former officers of the Revolutionary Guards and former presidents such as Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami did the same.

Rivalry within the regime is very intense. No one marries anyone and everyone covers each other’s back. For example, it took Raisi two months to find the Vice President, Mohammad Mokhbar, who is now his successor. It took even longer to find a governor for the central bank.

These rivalries are personal. Everything is personal in Iranian politics. About 120 registered political parties respond to the personal interest of the promoter. There is no institution capable of managing these differences. There are no fixed rules either. They change when they are harmed by radicals.

Khamenei is an extremist. He is 85 and has ruled with an iron fist since 1989. He resorts to purges and cultivates a cult of personality. He is also pragmatic. Despite being a clergyman, he speaks little about religion. The arguments he gave for suppressing the women’s uprising were not theological but of law and order.

This pragmatism led him to negotiate secretly and indirectly with the United States to ensure that the war in Gaza did not become a regional conflict. Iranian and US envoys have met three times in Oman in recent months.

For this reason, Iran has not built a nuclear bomb, although it has enough enriched uranium for some. It no longer cooperates with the International Atomic Energy Agency, but it has not left the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The weakness of governance requires maximum caution.

The great foreign bets of Khamenei and the guardians of the revolution to strengthen their mandate are China and Russia. Your help is needed to keep the economy running.

Iran sells drones and missiles to Russia for fighting in Ukraine. In return, it wants to purchase Sukhoi Su-35 fighter aircraft and the S-400 air defense system, capable of intercepting the F-35, the most sophisticated aircraft of the Israeli and US air forces. There is no evidence that these weapons have already reached Iran, but the processes began much earlier. When they do, Russia will have more than just another major ally in the Middle East, it will have a partner to try to dominate the region.

Khamenei seeks to make Raisi’s succession quick and simple. This has enough power to discourage any candidate who is not loyal to the regime’s most hardline wing, but the record raises the possibility of a complicated struggle.

Same thing happens with Khamenei’s succession. With the death of the favorite Raisi, the decision now depends on the 88 members of the Council of Experts, who hardly have any political profile and respond to the interests of the military, political and economic apparatus. 60% are over 70 years of age and have no desire to improve. His connection with the society is zero.

Iran is sinking and becoming radicalized because of the personal interests of its ruling class.

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