Can Trump go to jail? What will happen if the former US President is found guilty?

A Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty this Thursday of falsifying records of payments made to actress Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence. The tycoon is guilty of 34 crimes, including violating election financing laws as an aggravating factor. The next question is what punishment can the former US president receive?

The decision specifically matches the judge in the case, Juan Merchan, and sentencing won’t be known until July 11. The crimes Trump has been convicted of, including falsifying business records in the first degree, are class E felonies in New York state and carry a sentence of up to four years in prison. They are class E meaning they are in the least serious category.

According to experts, Trump is unlikely to be sentenced to jail. This is the first time the tycoon has been convicted and the crime he has been found guilty of is a non-violent offense.

“The judge is probably not going to send him to prison for this alone,” explains Cheryl Bader, a law professor at Fordham University in New York. Bader considers any sentence that would involve Trump’s imprisonment “unlikely”: “Since he is a former president and the likely Republican nominee (for the presidential election on November 5), a prison sentence would be logistically very difficult and would have political implications. Traders you want to avoid.”

Punishment is more likely to come in the form of fines, probation, community service or a combination. “I would like to see community services, like picking up trash on the subway,” said Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former chief prosecutor for the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office.

The decision on Trump’s sentencing will depend on how Judge Marchen interprets his behavior, including his complete lack of remorse.

“I don’t think we’ll see a remorseful and apologetic Trump when sentencing comes,” Bader explains. “Judges also consider the damage. On the one hand, Judge Marchan could view this as a technical violation of recording to conceal inappropriate conduct that caused only minimal damage. On the other hand, one could consider that Trump’s conduct caused profound harm to the entire country by depriving the voting public of their right to cast their conscience in a supreme national election.

The jury had the option of convicting Trump not only of a lesser crime — falsifying business records — but also of any other underlying crime. Trump’s lawyers could have asked Merchan to give the jury that option, but he did not.

Prosecutors in the case and Trump’s lawyers will now present their sentencing recommendations. The probation office will have to do the same, which will prepare a confidential report for the judge.

What seems almost certain is that Trump will soon appeal the guilty verdict. As a result, any sentence imposed will be suspended while the appeal is processed, a process that could take months or years and would inevitably delay the imposition of the sentence.

Trump now has 30 days to file a notice of appeal and six months to file a full appeal. If the conviction is upheld, it will likely be done before the state’s highest appeals court, the New York Court of Appeals. That court has discretionary power to decide whether to hear the case.

The appeal is most likely to raise complex legal issues. For example, whether the judge gave the jury proper instructions and allowed the correct evidence to be included or excluded. The facts and credibility of witnesses will not be subject to appeal.

If the conviction is upheld by a New York appeals court, Trump is likely to appeal to the US Supreme Court, which could also decide whether to take up the case. Since the case is governed by New York state law, reaching the US Supreme Court would require Trump to convince the justices that some federal or constitutional issue is at stake.

The conviction would have no effect on Trump’s legal ability to run for president. The Constitution does not bar felons from running for office. It has not been proven whether he could serve as president from prison. He could not pardon himself from any convictions, as these are state crimes.

The conviction is unlikely to affect Trump’s ability to vote in this fall’s election. Florida, where he is registered, allows people convicted outside the state to vote if the state in which they were convicted allows it. In New York, a person convicted of a felony can vote as long as he is not in prison.

Merchan has already penalized Trump twice during the case for violating the gag order, and the judge’s handling of both episodes could provide insight into how he will approach any potential punishment for Trump. Merchan is well aware of the logistical difficulty of imprisoning Trump and the broader political implications of doing so.