Categories: Business

Capricorn 35, live | Geopolitical tensions and rising Brent oil prices keep stock markets on edge | Financial markets

Stock markets cannot shake off pessimism given developments in the Middle East. The Ibex 35 index is hovering around 11,600 points, while the French stock market is the leading decliner in Europe. Investors today are waiting to see what Israel’s response will be to a recent missile attack on its territory by Iran after it emerged the United States and the United States were trying to limit its influence by warning of possible attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Tensions in the region are keeping oil prices higher, with Brent up nearly 2% to more than $75 a barrel.

On the Spanish stock market, the most bullish shares were Rovi (1.4%) and Grifols (1.2%), followed by Redeia and CaixaBank, while steel companies led the way with Arcelor Mittal and Acerinox down more than 1.5%. They were followed by Telefónica and Sacyr with a fall of 1.3%.

In Asia, the Nikkei rose 2%, helped by a weaker yen and after a meeting between new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda delayed any rate hike. . Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 3.2% and the Shanghai Composite remains closed for the holidays.

In the macroeconomic panorama of the eurozone, the growth of activity of companies in the Spanish service sector accelerated significantly in September last year, when the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reached a value of 57 points, compared with 54.6 in August, the highest level since April 2023, which keeps the index at growth territory for the thirteenth month in a row. However, both indicators in the eurozone fell to 51.4 points, a decline that strengthens the hypothesis of new cuts by the European Central Bank.

Claims for unemployment benefits are pouring in weekly in the US ahead of the jobs report due on Friday. On the other hand, the final composite PMI reading for September is expected after a slight decline in preliminary data. Orders for industrial and durable goods as well as non-manufacturing ISM are also forecast.

What do analysts say?

From Renta 4 they note that “we are likely to see tensions in the Middle East escalate to the point that Iran has threatened more devastating attacks if Israel retaliates, which seems likely since Israel has already promised to retaliate. Among its potential targets are Iranian oil infrastructure and military bases, which could continue to increase crude oil production not only because of the potential disruption to Iran’s supply (3% of global crude oil production), but also because of the risk of the agreement being extended. conflict in the Middle East. We remember that the Middle East’s role in global crude oil production and trade is very important.”

Tito Jacopa from FlowCommunity: “Gold took some profits, but over the past few days it has continued to trade sideways, remaining near all-time highs. The asset rose yesterday as market participants reacted to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In the medium to long term, the outlook for gold may remain favorable. Flows into gold ETFs, expectations of further interest rate cuts by major central banks and continued demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical and economic risks continue to provide strong support. However, a stronger dollar could curb any significant price increases in the near future. Moreover, a more cautious stance from the Federal Reserve could become an additional headwind for the precious metal.”

Claudia von Türk, senior analyst at Equity Research: “European banks outperformed the broader equity market for the fourth year in a row as rising interest rates lifted earnings. Net interest income is no longer generating positive surprises, but equity ratios have increased and overall return on equity is around 10%. Lending growth may offset some of the pressure on banks’ net interest margins in particularly rate-sensitive countries such as Spain. Falling interest rates will put pressure on banks’ net interest income, but the sector is working to increase other sources of income. Profitability should remain strong and support attractive dividends.”