Conservatives win Croatian election, but need allies to govern

With counting practically finished, the clear victory of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic’s conservative party HDZ in Croatia’s legislative elections held on Wednesday was confirmed this Thursday. With 99.7% of the votes counted, the HDZ added 61 seats, while its main rival, the social democrat SDP-led “Reverse of Justice” coalition, gained 42 seats.

In third place was the right-wing nationalist Patriotic Movement party, with 14 representatives, which could be key to the formation of any coalition, although there are clear programmatic similarities with the conservatives.

In fourth place was the centre-right party Most (Puente) with 11 representatives, followed by the left-wing environmental party Mozemo (Vamos) with 10 representatives.

Plenkovic, who appeared before his followers to celebrate the victory this morning, highlighted HDZ’s “credible victory” in the third consecutive legislative elections, although its 61 deputies are five fewer than the 66 it received in 2020.

The Prime Minister said that he will work to form a government from this Thursday with the aim of providing stability to the country.

“Maintaining political stability and the rapid formation of a government is necessary to ensure economic and social security in the face of the complex geopolitical situation,” explained the HDZ leader, who has been at the head of the government since 2016.

For his part, social democratic leader Pedja Grubin did not give up despite coming in second place and announced that he would also try to form a majority government.

“Two-thirds of citizens have shown that they want change. We will not let you down,” Grubin declared, referring to votes for opposition parties in the Adriatic nation of 3.9 million inhabitants.

Analysts agree that the conservatives in power start from a good position but are far from the 76 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.

Although all parties in the campaign ruled out the possibility of entering into a coalition with HDZ due to its corruption scandals, the right-wing Patriotic Movement already ruled out it on Wednesday, shortly after the first estimates became known.

Corruption allegations against Plenkovic’s party, which led to the resignation of several ministers last term, complicate the search for partners, but building an alternative around the Social Democrats is expected to be even more difficult.

Plenkovic ran a campaign focused on stability and his government’s achievements since 2016, such as Croatia’s entry into the euro zone and the Schengen area.

However, his party, which has ruled Croatia for 25 of the 33 years since independence, has been dogged by corruption scandals, undermining its image and credibility.

The electoral campaign was marked by a duel between Plenkovic and populist President Zoran Milanovic, who campaigned for the Social Democrats and wants to lead the executive if the opposition forms a parliamentary majority.

Milanovic, who has shifted from traditional social democratic positions toward populist, nationalist and Eurosceptic messages during the pandemic, defied the Constitutional Court by running in the electoral contest without resigning his presidency, which the court declared unconstitutional.

The Constitutional Court warned him that the post of head of state, a prestigious rather formal post in the Croatian parliamentary democracy, is incompatible with actively participating in a campaign.

Milanovic focused his criticism on HDZ’s corruption and the influence of corrupt powers within the state, with which he justified his openly ignoring the judicial decision vetoing his participation in the campaign.

The president, a popular but very polarizing figure, has criticized sending arms to Ukraine to defend itself against Russian aggression, noting that it prolongs the conflict, a position the ultra-nationalist Hungarian premier The minister is similar to Viktor Orban.

During the campaign, Plenkovic criticized Milanovic’s sympathy and understanding towards the Kremlin and said that his remaining in the government would call into question Croatia’s Euro-Atlantic course.