- Wall Street index futures are down 0.5% to 1%. The VIX volatility index rises 5% in response to growing demand for risk coverage due to a possible increase in volatility after the US session (Nvidia results)
- Dollar index futures are up 0.5% today, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 3 basis points to 4.41%; The eurodollar fell more than 0.5% to 1.054.
- The Fed’s Michelle Bowman said the Fed should be more cautious about easing policy as the effects of fighting inflation slowly evaporate, although it has missed its target and the rate is likely to be neutral. The interest rate in the US economy is much higher now. than previously expected by 2%
- Fed spokeswoman Lisa Cook’s comments also signaled caution, as she made clear that further rate cuts would only be warranted if the base case (further lower inflation) materialized.
- We are seeing a clear pullback in semiconductor stocks. Susquehanna analysts cut their valuation of Qualcomm to $210 from $230 previously, citing disappointment with the company’s recent press conference.
- Eli Lilly shares rose 3% (along with Novo Nordisk) after the WSJ reported on the company’s sales representatives promoting the benefits of GLP-1 obesity drug subsidies for employees to private companies and US unions.
- Henry Hub natural gas contracts rose 8% today, helped by changes in US weather forecasts for late November/early December; NOAA Forecast Indicates Temperatures Much Cooler Than Expected
- Oil is trading down 0.5% and today’s EIA data points to a larger-than-expected rise in US inventories;
- Crude oil reserves: 0.545 million barrels (forecast: -0.085 million barrels; previous: 2.089 million barrels)
- Gasoline reserves: 2.054 million barrels (forecast: +0.75 million barrels; previous: -4.407 million barrels)
- Distillate reserves: -0.114 million barrels (forecast: +0.4 million barrels; previous: -1.394 million barrels)
- Gold is rising almost 0.7% in response to rising political tensions and risks to the global economy in the future, which could be affected by US tariff policy.
- On the other hand, opinions are divided on the issue, with Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon indicating that Trump’s proposals are more likely to stimulate economic growth. Silver, however, is trading lower, with palladium and platinum also losing ground.
- Bitcoin corrects gains after reaching $95,500 at current price of $94,000; Microstrategy shares are trading up 13% and volume data shows record interest in the stock, with trading volumes approaching those of Microsoft and Nvidia in recent days. According to yet unconfirmed media reports, Trump’s team is considering creating the first position in the White House related to cryptocurrencies.