Decisive presidential election key for Chavismo after 25 years in power

Venezuela is set to hold a presidential election this Sunday that could change the political direction of the country. Some polls show that opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia of the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) coalition has a chance of defeating incumbent President Nicolás Maduro, who seeks to renew his mandate for a third time on July 28.

The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has ruled the country since 1999, first with Hugo Chávez and, after his death in 2013, with Nicolás Maduro.

Sanctions and crises

Venezuela has been plunged into a deep crisis for more than a decade. It began with the collapse in oil prices at the start of the Maduro government in 2014. Sanctions from countries such as the United States and the European Union and inflation – which is now 8.9% – have often complicated life in the country.

Today, the United Nations estimates that 7.7 million Venezuelans have left the country. from them, Less than 70,000 people will be able to vote in these elections. socioeconomic status, added to Imprisonment of government criticshas prompted a high percentage of its population – over 19% – to leave, and according to some surveys up to a third of those remaining in Venezuela They assure that if there is no political change they will migrate,

Closure of the opposition camp

The second factor, and perhaps more decisive, is the ability of opposition parties to reform themselves: the anti-Chavista opposition has managed to formulate a political proposal that, for the first time, seems to offer an opportunity to measure itself against the ruling party in Venezuela.

The Democratic Unitary Platform, a coalition that brings together 11 opposition parties, has placed its trust in the right-wing politician María Corina Machado, leader of the political group Vente Venezuela, former deputy of the National Assembly and one of the most visible faces against Chavismo.

In October 2023, Machado won with 92.6% of the vote in the primary election held to choose who would represent the opposition. But she could not become a candidate. In January this year, the Supreme Court of Justice confirmed her political ineligibility for 15 years, joining a list that also includes former presidential candidate Henrique Caprilles. The letter justified the measure by accusing former head of parliament and self-appointed president Juan Guaidó of “being a participant in a corruption conspiracy”, as well as for failing to comply with Venezuelan rules – previously, the Comptroller General’s Office had reprimanded him for defending sanctions against the Caribbean nation.

Although Machado initially stated that there would be no elections without him, two months later, in March, he handed over his candidacy to Corina Yoris, an academic and philosopher with a low political profile, whom the National Electoral Council had not even allowed to register. So, at the threshold for submitting the proposal, former ambassador Edmundo González Urrutia entered the game: he met the administrative requirements, so, at first, he entered provisionally. Ultimately, with the support of María Corina Machado, González was designated the opposition candidate.

Today, he leads in several polls. On Monday of this week, consulting firm Clearpath Strategies showed 59% voting intention for Gonzalez, versus 33% for Maduro. Another poll, conducted by the UCAB Center for Political and Government Studies with pollster Delfos, predicts an even wider gap: 59.1% versus 24.6%.

“Today there has been a very broad result in favour of the opposition, which had not been seen until now and which could not have been understood without the support of María Corina Machado’s vote for González,” Benigno Alarcón, director of the Center for Studies, tells elDiario.es. The support of other opposition parties is also important. “An image of unity was generated, which raised expectations that they could win,” says Alarcón.

The Venezuelan government has argued that it faces “disadvantages” in the presidential elections due to international sanctions that “limit or create distortions in its ability to manage.”

Both Chavismo and the opposition have taken thousands of supporters to the streets in a show of strength in the final stages of the electoral campaign.

“I am ready for a great victory and I know that our people are going to do it again. They could not beat us and they will never be able to and on Sunday we will show it to the fascists, to imperialism,” Nicolás Maduro said last Thursday in front of a crowd of supporters: “On Sunday, pass the bill to the fascists, to the extreme right, and we are going to give them such a beating so that they never rise again and do any more damage to this country.”

And after this?

Maduro has used words such as “war” or “hecatomb” to refer to the opposition’s victory. At one rally, he called on the public to vote for him “if they don’t want Venezuela to fall into bloodshed, into civil war,” citing the possibility of an opposition government.

References to the Latin American left have stressed the importance of respecting the results. Brazilian Lula da Silva, who initially preferred to distance himself, this week stressed the respect for “democratic values” and expressed concern about the president’s statements. “Maduro has to learn that when you win you stay, and when you lose you leave, and prepare for other elections,” he stressed. Chilean President Gabriel Boric showed his support for his Brazilian counterpart. “Under no circumstances can a genocide be threatened. Leaders and candidates receive votes and these votes represent popular sovereignty, which must be respected,” said the Chilean president.

The president responded at a campaign event, “I did not lie, I just made a reflection, whoever is scared should take chamomile because these Venezuelans are cured of fear and know what I’m saying.”

For his part, Colombian President Gustavo Petro has insisted on his proposal for a national accord that “seeks maximum guarantees for the opposition while respecting the upcoming electoral result.” In April, Petro described the electoral disqualification of Maria Corina Machado as an “undemocratic coup.”

Other countries in the region, notably Argentina, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Paraguay and Uruguay, have questioned the “systematic harassment and persecution against leaders and supporters of the Venezuelan opposition”.

Former right-wing Ibero-American presidents, including José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy, have said that “any attempt at fraud must be punished with maximum sanctions.”

Political analysts consulted through this channel believe that not accepting the results would be like shooting Maduro in the foot, so they trust that he will not take that path. “There is a certain nervousness, but I hope the institutions will respect the result. If Maduro does not do so, it will open a Pandora’s box that is difficult to close,” says Benigno Alarcón.

Venezuela’s next president will take office in January 2025, so it will take about six months to complete the transfer of powers. “If Maduro loses the election, the government should be the main interested party in the negotiations. If they don’t, it will create a complicated situation for them. Later, no one will want to negotiate with them,” Alarcón says.

In a recent interview with Country, Nicolás Maduro Guerra, son of the Venezuelan president, assures that, if necessary, he will give up, although he assures that he is confident in the victory of Chavismo. “If Edmundo wins, we will do well and we will be a prepared opponent. I was not born to be president, my father was not born to be president. I was born in the valley, I studied in a public school. And if everything ends up in opposition, there we are. I don’t know if they can withstand the opposition, we are a riot,” he says.

Amnesty International has said that a “commitment to human rights” is “essential” after an electoral period “marked by repression” and reminded that the International Criminal Court is investigating the Venezuelan government for possible crimes against humanity due to its repression of protests in 2017, something that was also condemned by the UN mission.

For now, it remains to be seen what happens this Sunday in Venezuela, which is expected to hold historic and massive elections, with participation expected at up to 70%.