The United States economy is the variable that weighs most heavily in dollar movements. On Thursday, it was reported that inflation in the country accelerated at the end of 2023, defying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates. Reference image.
Photo: Bloomberg
In the first weeks of 2024, the dollar will remain at $4,000, a few pesos below that level. This Friday, January 12, expectations regarding the behavior of the currency are driven by the publication of inflation data in the United States, which showed that the consumer price index is not falling at the expected rate.
The dollar closed at US$3893 this Friday, January 12, marking a decline of $34 from last Thursday, January 11’s close of $3,927.
From my side, Representative market rate (TRM) set by the Columbia Monetary Authority as of this Friday, January 12th is $3,929.79. This is $16.6 less than the previous day. Additionally, current TRM is down $818.75 from last year (Jan 12, 2023) and down $52.71 from a month ago.
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The United States economy is the variable that weighs most heavily in dollar movements. On Thursday, it was reported that inflation in the country accelerated at the end of 2023, defying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates.
The consumer price index closed at 3.4% in 2023, after the biggest rise in three months, according to government data. Monthly fluctuations were also larger than expected.
Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) rose 0.3% in December compared with the previous month. In annual terms, the so-called core index grew by 3.9%. Economists prefer the core indicator because they consider it a better indicator of inflation trends than the headline consumer price index.
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Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed rising prices for housing, electricity and vehicle insurance. Used car prices rose for a second month, despite expectations of a decline. Despite the recovery, the numbers capped a year in which inflation fell overall without causing much damage to the labor market, clearing the way for the Fed to lower borrowing costs this year.
In their latest economic forecasts, officials expect three rate cuts in 2024, although authorities rejected market expectations that the first cut could come in March.
Treasury yields and the dollar rose while stock index futures fluctuated after the report. The Fed’s next interest rate meeting is later this month.
The premise regarding the price of the dollar is that the more dollars there are in circulation in a country, the lower their price will be. FEED will be decisive. The dollar is expected to remain relatively weak this year, below the $4,000 barrier. It is likely, as experts say, that the thresholds of $3,800 will be reached again. However, all of these forecasts are subject to change as the world registers variables that could affect the deficit, such as escalating conflict in Ukraine and along the Gaza Strip border, as well as other geopolitical and commercial tensions.
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