Dozens of opportunistic funds took advantage of Naturgy ahead of the takeover bid

Negotiations held by the group Taka United Arab Emirates with some shareholders Naturgy For start takeover about this company caused a tsunami of buying and selling of securities on the stock market.

In the midst of a possible takeover, which the market has already a month of waiting, they have already happened a hundred significant movements between investment funds and other entities that are somehow trying to take advantage of the growth of stocks.

This is clear from the analysis carried out by EXPANSIÓN regarding the transactions carried out between Naturgy’s two hundred largest shareholders since April 15th. On that day it was announced that Taka was in negotiations with CVC and GIP purchase of its shares. That’s just over 40% of Naturgy overall, which would see it make a takeover bid of more than 100%. All this is always with consent Kaishawhich is the first shareholder and will remain in the capital of Naturgy under a joint management agreement with Taqa, which guarantees the Spanish character of the energy group.

During this month of waiting, some funds arrived or more or less significant participation appeared. We are talking about objects such as AustralianSuper PTY, Axa, Camgestion, Desjardins Global, Fidelity, Future Fund, Ginsglobal Index, Helaba Invest, Implemented Investment, MD Financial, MDO Management, Montagu Private Equity, Security Kag and Summit Investment.

Benefit collection

MeanwhileOther groups have changed their holdings, increasing them to reflect the prospect of greater stock market gains, or lowering them and even dropping out of the stake to benefit. after the stock market heatwave that Naturgy has experienced since April 15th. This is the case Universal Investment, Jyske Invest, Banque Degroof, Royal Bank of Canada, BlackRock, Norges and Vanguard Group. When BlackRock, this fund rose from 0.92% to 0.23%.after successive surgeries in April and May.

Morgan Stanley effect

When Norway, increased from 0.03% to 0.07%. Vanguard, which appeared at 0.52% at the time it was announced Taqa was in talks to join Naturgy, now has 0.55% after back-to-back purchases in April.

The first information about Taqa’s negotiations with CVC and GIP appeared on April 15. The day before, Naturgy closed at 20.8 euros per share. Since then they have grown by more than 24%.. This progress contrasts with the slowdown in previous months.

Naturgy has not been able to fully raise its head since February Morgan Stanley announced it was removing the company from its indexes (fundamentally as a guide for funds to invest in specific companies).

Morgan’s argument was poor liquidity(free swimming) from Naturgy in the bag. Impact of Morgan Stanley indices (Morgan Stanley Capital International, MSCI), led to a fall in shares from 23 euros to 19 euros. This effect has already been completely negated by the stock market heat generated by the Taka negotiations and the possibility of a takeover bid. However, there appears to be a €25 barrier.

25 euros for the first time

Last Friday, for the first time since Taki’s moves became known, the stock closed above €25.

. Specifically, 25.02 euros. This is the highest price since mid-January. Overall, Naturgy is very far from its historical high of 38 euros in 2007.

Financial sources indicate that The takeover offer is being discussed at a price of around 27 euros.. The question is whether to subtract from this amount the dividends that Naturgy already plans to pay in the coming months.

Predictable dividend

Being very predictable dividends, Major CVC and GIP sellers don’t want to be discounted. This year alone, following the usual pattern, Naturgy plans to make two dividend payments, in August and November, at 0.5 euros per share in each case. The takeover process can take months, as happened with the partial takeover launched by IFM in 2021. which lasted almost a year. Then, Naturgy may have to face new dividend payments in 2025.