Early voting in the United States shows strong Republican mobilization in key states. usa elections

The campaign continues. In the last round, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will once again visit crucial states, where the election will be decided. However, for 42 million Americans, the die has already been cast. They cast their ballots, in person or by mail, through various early voting mechanisms considered by states. The figure is lower than 2020, a record year in early voting due to the pandemic. Known figures show a large mobilization of voters registered as Republicans, especially in swing states. To what extent does it predict any trend towards the final outcome? Nobody knows. While in 2020, Donald Trump and the Republicans demonized voting by mail and asked their voters to go to the polls on the official election day; However, this time they are encouraging early voting.

In the United States, each state organizes voting in its own way, within minimum limits established by federal law. Voting by mail and in-person early voting have different deadlines and requirements. Similarly, there are rules for voter registration, identification, size of ballot papers and counting system. There are states where it is easy to register and vote and others where elections are poorly organized and there are endless queues. Furthermore, the information already provided by states on who is exercising their right to vote is also not homogeneous. Some break down information about whether voters are registered as Republican, Democrat, or Independent, while others do not. Similarly, there are those that provide data on age, gender and race; However most people do not spread this information. Therefore, photography is always comprehensive.

With the latest data, 42 million citizens have already voted, according to data compiled by the Election Lab at the University of Florida. That equates to 27% of the 155 million Americans who voted in 2020, but it’s clearly less than those who voted just four years ago when there were the same number of days left to the election as there are now.

Thus, there are 21.1 million citizens who have voted in person at electoral centers established for the purpose. In addition, another 21.3 million votes have been received by mail, with more than 65 million people currently requesting this method. The number of these early voting elections is the second highest in history. In 2020, with the pandemic, all records for early voting were broken. States provided formulas to avoid the risk of contagion – many have been maintained – and about 70% of votes were cast in advance or by mail.

In the general count, voters registered as Democrats are in the lead with 8.4 million ballots, 40% of which have been identified. However, the lead over Republicans has declined significantly compared to 2020. There are already 7.6 million ballots cast among their registered voters, 36% of the total. In addition, another 4.8 million independent citizens (24%) (those not registered in any party or registered in minority parties) voted. Just because a voter is registered for a party does not mean that he or she will vote for it. Furthermore, there is no data on more than 20 million voters, as they exercised their right in states where their affiliation is not broken.

Although early voting has declined significantly across the country, it is close to or above figures from four years ago in seven swing states. And this is where Republicans are particularly mobilizing compared to 2020. At the time, Trump was spreading conspiracy theories that mail-in voting was rigged and calling for people to go to the polls on Election Day; However, this year it celebrates and encourages (though not always) early voting.

“We are breaking records in terms of votes. There is an early voting record. Trump people are coming out, they’re voting like crazy. And, usually, it’s our vote in the end,” the former president said at a rally in Traverse City (Michigan) on Friday. “This will be the biggest political victory in the history of our country,” he said.

Of the seven swing states, three are where officials do not feature voters’ political affiliation: Georgia, where election attendance records have been broken, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Of the other four, unlike in 2020, Republicans are ahead in North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. In Pennsylvania, the advantage is Democratic, but significantly smaller than in 2020.

In North Carolina, another state where records are being broken despite the logistical difficulties associated with recovery operations due to the impact of the hurricane Helen, Republicans cast 940,000 ballots (34.3%), while Democrats cast 910,000 (33.2%) and independents cast 891,000. Trump won North Carolina by 1.3 points in 2020, even though Democrats had a nearly 15-point lead in early voting this time around.

In Arizona, this trend is taking hold. The count shows 542,000 ballots from Republican voters (42%), compared to 454,000 from Democrats (35%) and 297,000 from independents (23%), which is in contrast to the Democrats’ 10-point margin at this point in 2020. Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 10,457 votes.

Something similar is happening in Nevada, where Republicans have eliminated the lead of more than 10 points that the Democrats had and now there is a gap of five points in their favor. Thus, 244,000 of its members (40%) cast their votes, compared to 213,000 Democrats (35%) and 155,000 independents (25%). After all, Biden won that state by 2.4 points in 2020.

Democrats are still clearly ahead in Pennsylvania, where there is no in-person early voting, but everything is done by mail – this formula was most promoted by Republicans in the past, although now they promote it. . Of the ballots received in the most important swing states, 762,000 (59.4%) were from voters registered as Democrats, while another 390,000 (30.4%) were from Republicans and 130,000 (10.2%) were from Independent voters.

This may seem like a success for the Democrats, but in 2020, with similar margins on election day, the margin was about 70%-20% in their favor and with all ballots counted Biden carried Pennsylvania by just one point. Won. Verification may be somewhat less onerous this year than in 2020, when mail-in ballots were accepted up to three days after the election date. This time this limit is till 8 pm on 5th November.

The Republican lead in early voting, Trump’s improvement in surveys and the improvement in betting houses and even the growth of Treasury bonds and the dollar in the financial markets seem to tilt the balance slightly in favor of the former president. However, the distortions introduced by Covid four years ago and the 180-degree turn by Republican leaders regarding early voting force the data to be taken with great caution. Counting, including votes received in advance, does not begin until Election Day. It will be then, or in the following days, when the winner will be known.