Elon Musk’s plans to go to Mars… within two years | Science

Few public figures are as distasteful as Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX. His outlandish statements, extravagant personal life and political preferences have given him an aura that likens him to a James Bond bad guy determined to conquer—and perhaps destroy—the world.

While this image is more than justified, it should not hide another facet of Musk – a superb engineer and visionary. Whether it’s because of his revolutionary ideas or his ability to surround himself with the best technical talent, the truth is that in just a few years, his companies (Tesla, SpaceX) have truly revolutionized their fields; and others (Neuralink) retain the potential to do so in the future. And let’s not forget that he was the one who pushed for some of these concepts to be implemented, such as the re-entry missile or the technology to find it in the air.

Musk is known for his amazing statements and predictions. Reality has shown that many of them came true, although – yes – with a significant delay compared to optimistic forecasts. Now it has just announced its intention to send not one, but five unmanned spacecraft to Mars, taking advantage of the launch window that opens in 2025.

Musk’s ultimate goal is to launch his super rocket at intervals not of weeks or days, but of hours. That is why the first stage of the rocket is captured in the same tower from which it took off: to be able to quickly place it on the launch pedestal, check the condition of the engines, replace damaged ones, and attach a second one. stage, refueling and restart.

Is it possible to maintain this pace? Not today, as the first stage (Super Heavy) is still undergoing testing, but two years from now it doesn’t seem like an impossible task. Boca Chica already has two launch towers, although the second has not yet opened. The third was installed on ramp 39A at the Kennedy Center. Once all three are ready to go, SpaceX could theoretically launch three. super rockets almost simultaneously.

Super Heavy is recoverable, and each mission lasts less than a quarter of an hour – that’s how long it takes to lift its payload to an altitude of about 70 kilometers, brake and return to base. So it would be enough for SpaceX to have a fleet of three launchers, one for each platform. Maybe two or three more as a precaution. After all, they are relatively cheap; the most expensive is its 33-engine Raptor propulsion system.

Today, SpaceX produces engines at a rate of one per day. With the upcoming release of a new model that makes extensive use of 3D printing, this figure could double.

Why this launch frenzy? Because the second stage of the rocket, which includes the Starship (the manned spacecraft itself), only has fuel to enter low-Earth orbit. Future missions to the Moon or Mars will require resupply of methane and oxygen during flight. Another critical operation that was never performed.

To achieve this, SpaceX engineers plan to use a fleet of tankers that automatically dock with the main ship to refill their tanks as quickly as possible to avoid evaporation losses as much as possible. Each interplanetary journey will require six to twelve cargo ships. This can be restored. Or not.

Musk estimates that the cost of each recharge launch will be minimal. The first stage – the most expensive – is subject to restoration; The second is nothing more than a body, which is produced in the Boca Chica industrial complex, right next to the ramp. They are cheap and quick to build because they are made from stainless steel rather than exotic materials such as lightweight aluminum alloys or carbon fiber. Although not many details are known about it, it appears that SpaceX assembles them almost mass-produced, straight from rolls of metal coming from a rolling mill.

Of course, the bottleneck may be the supply of thousands of liters of methane and oxygen needed to maintain a constant launch rate. Today, the “tank park” adjacent to the launch tower is enough to refuel one rocket, and not several in a row. Both Boca Chica and Kennedy are on the coast, so there are those who are proposing to build a pontoon and a small gas pipeline to carry the fuel on larger LNG ships.

In principle, orbital cargo ships will also be subject to recovery, which involves providing them with protection from heat upon re-entry. Each is equipped with only six engines, which may be worth reusing; although they do not represent a disproportionate cost, and if time is short, Musk may allow them to be destroyed after the cargo is delivered. This wouldn’t be the first time: During the recent Europa Clipper launch, which required a high exit speed, SpaceX decided to lose three rocket bodies in order to squeeze every last drop of fuel out of them.

In any case, after the success of capturing the first stage “in flight”, it is likely that the next efforts of SpaceX technical specialists will be aimed at the most complex maneuver to resupply in space. Apart from plans to explore Mars, the truth is that this operation will be necessary to send to the Moon the lander contracted with NASA as part of the Artemis program. Mars has no date (except for Elon Musk’s pharaonic plans); Moon, yes.