EU prepares contingency plans in case Trump returns to the White House. usa elections

The European Union is preparing for its worst economic and geopolitical scenario in the United States: the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The victory of the Republican stalwart in the presidential election on November 5 could be a blow to the commercial and security policy of the community club; Also to support Ukraine against aggressor Russia. Brussels has been developing contingency plans for several weeks to prevent actions that could negatively impact the union and, for example, if the new administration dramatically increases tariffs on imports of European products and to respond accordingly.

A high-level team from the European Commission and the European Foreign Service, sometimes with the participation of capitals, is studying possible scenarios to be able to avoid or react to the shock so that it is not so strong. Apart from this, many member countries are also working on their own plans, diplomatic sources admit. “The only certainty is absolute uncertainty,” says a European official who attended the confidential talks. The community team was created in the summer, but meetings have intensified in recent weeks, according to multiple sources. Recent surveys show that Trump and the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, are tied in the election race.

A diplomatic source says everything indicates that Trump will remain “unpredictable”. Several scenarios are considered: from a catastrophic perspective to the possibility of a moderate shock, he added. High-level EU officials have already contacted people on the Republican team and those who are talking about a hypothetical Trump 2.0 administration to prevent potential trade wars and geopolitical unrest. But when everything is still so unclear the ability to influence is limited. There is no guarantee of this later.

Brussels is clear that the Republican magnate will remain highly protectionist and has already promised to increase import tariffs; Something that he did in his first mandate and to which Brussels responded. But Democrat Joe Biden has also been one of them and Harris will not stray from the path.

The uncertainty is how much Trump will increase those tariffs and on which products. He has already signaled he will impose tariffs on all imports by 10%, which the German Institute for Economics estimates could cost the Community bloc about 180 billion euros. The idea is to prevent a coup with some kind of quick compromise and diplomatic blitz of inducements – the preferred option – or, if that doesn’t work, to stand down and act in a “proportionate” manner against a range of American products. Is. Community experts already do the analysis.

Furthermore, several European sources, who are concerned as the elections approach on Tuesday, point out that it is necessary to measure how these entry tariff increases for European products affect the EU, but also Washington and What impact does the escalation of trade war have on Beijing? So that China can divert more products towards the Union.

Within this economic and commercial block, the EU has also intensified its contacts with other partners, in order to try to close pending trade agreements with Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, such as Australia or Mercosur. , who looked dead. and in which in recent months the pending negotiations have been revived to overcome the eternal resistance of France.

Pivot to the Indo-Pacific

In the geopolitical arena, the most plausible scenario is for Republicans to turn their attention to the Indo-Pacific. Also that the dispute with Iran deepens. But the most delicate and unexpected element is undoubtedly the support for Ukraine from republican magnates who are very close to Russian Vladimir Putin and who have already said that after winning they will put on the table a plan to end the war. The disastrous scenario would be that Washington withdraws all support for Kiev and begins to lift sanctions on the Kremlin and the Russian leader’s orbit. The EU would be left alone to support the aggressor country, something that would soon become untenable.

Another scenario is that it makes escalation-to-deescalation plans – for example, bombarding Russian territory with American material and even allowing aid for shootings – and thereby convinces the Kremlin to negotiate. brings to the table. A highly placed community source says a return to diplomatic channels will happen eventually, but the question is when and with how many concessions it will be dealt with from Ukraine.

Brussels has already taken action on these possible scenarios. In recent weeks, it has managed to secure a $50 billion loan from G-7 allies to Ukraine, which will be repaid with returns generated by Russian state assets frozen in the EU due to sanctions imposed because of the war in Ukraine. . , And it has managed to get the United States to contribute $20 billion to the package, the same amount as Brussels. There has been a lot of pressure to reach an agreement before the elections.

European sources say it will be difficult to raise more money if the US partner pulls out of the team. and a security element for the Union and its European NATO allies. The United States is the main ally of the military organization and that is why it is not preparing with contingency plans like the EU, although they have tried to shield support for Ukraine. Trump has already threatened to “withdraw” from the alliance and withdraw troops from the European region, but he remains bound by agreements and accords. It is not that easy. But statements suggesting it will stop protecting allies that do not spend 2% of their GDP on defense (including Spain) are being criticized as marked by NATO’s major commitment, says a veteran diplomat. That it could be extremely “destabilizing”.

The response to this “disintegration” scenario is to draw up a structure of “incentives”, reaching a commitment by the EU to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction, finance programs or even put on the table defense renewal contracts that the new administration can offer. Can be attractive for. ,

All this also comes at a crucial moment when the EU is discussing what defense and security model it wants and needs and how to raise the millions of euros to pay for it. The European Commission is already working on a proposal to member states that it will present in its first 100 days in office.

A European source says a Trump victory would be bad news for the new European Commission and President Ursula von der Leyen, who has a very Atlanticist stance and has enjoyed very good relations with the Biden administration. He further said, even for Europe, which is weak, Germany and France are faltering.