EU will help Ukraine with 50 billion euros after Orban’s veto is lifted

There are few European leaders as comfortable as Prime Minister Victor Oban in the role of enfant terrible and David against Goliath. But no one seems to be aware that the pressure has been too great in recent weeks, even on the Hungarian president. After just a 15-minute meeting and some previous preparatory meetings, Budapest has lifted its veto on a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine over the next four years in exchange for minor concessions. Hungary will not be able to exercise veto power every year, as Orbán had intended, and will instead only have the possibility to review the disbursement of aid on an annual basis. Furthermore, the text of the conclusions opens the door to a general review of the budget within two years, if the capitals reach consensus. Something that seems very difficult to achieve.

The text also reminds that the mechanism was agreed in 2020 on the rule of law and that blocking funds should be allowed in a proportionate manner if a country does not respect the rule of law. A reference that does not exempt Hungary from continuing withheld funds. Although these Twenty-Seven concessions may seem like mere crumbs, they allow Orbán to sell the agreement at home. Doing this has already started. “Mission accomplished. The funds received from Hungary will not expire in Ukraine and we have a control mechanism at the end of the first and second year. “Our position on the war in Ukraine remains the same: we need a ceasefire and peace negotiations. “

As announced by Council President Charles Michel, this financial package ensures “firm, predictable and long-term financing for Ukraine”. What the twenty-seven wanted was the constant fear of a veto by Hungary. “Today Europe is getting stronger,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude for the green signal and stressed that the agreement with the Twenty-Seven is an example of “European unity”. Kyiv urgently needs money so the country can continue to function and these needs have increased after the funding was blocked in the United States Congress. Michel is confident that the step taken by the EU can serve as an example on the other side of the Atlantic.

Although countries were considering the possibility of invoking an ad hoc decision on the Twenty-Six if Orbán’s veto continued, this was not necessary. At last December’s summit, Orban stopped short of blocking the start of accession talks with Ukraine thanks to coordinated diplomatic moves with the remaining partners. At the request of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, he left the room while the rest gave the go-ahead. But these kinds of tricks don’t work in the case of an aid package to a country invaded by Putin.

During the past weeks, the pressure of twenty-seven has been at its peak. Last Monday, the Financial Times newspaper reported on an internal document that said European countries would consider leaving Hungary without any European funds if Hungary stuck to its veto, leaving the country facing strong economic consequences. Will have to. Although diplomatic sources later downplayed this document, everything indicates that the pressure has had an effect.

Digital Politico also assured last week, citing unnamed diplomatic sources, that European leaders would consider a new push of the so-called nuclear button, Article 7, which could deprive a country of its right to vote in its final phase. Is. Council., if systematic violations of the rule of law are found. The alliance between Hungary and the previous Polish government had halted the process, as unanimity of the capitals is required for the procedures to proceed. Although the European Commission and leaders have since denied that they were thinking about taking this step, everything indicates that Orbán got the message and preferred not to provoke anger.

Furthermore, on 18 January, the European Parliament threatened the European Commission with legal action if the Community Executive released more funds to Hungary. The body chaired by von der Leyen decided on December 13 to grant the Magyar country 10.2 billion euros, noting that it had carried out part of the reforms in the field of justice. Despite this, the European Commission is withholding 20 billion euros until Budapest completes the necessary reforms on academic freedom and corruption and everything indicates that, after the European Parliament’s warning, the Brussels test will be tough.

Although consideration was given to introducing a twenty-six mechanism outside the Community budget if Hungary did not give in, this would mean practically breaking all ties with the country and entering a dangerous drift. There were technical implications as well as political implications, as resolution of these features would imply that some European countries would have to proceed with parliamentary ratification of this aid, thereby delaying the entire process, at the same time as Ukraine Will need hard cash quickly.

Once this last hurdle is passed, the big question is whether Orbán will use his veto power in the later stages of the European accession process. Everything indicates that the fight will continue. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk summed up the general mood, saying, “We don’t have Ukraine fatigue, we have Orbán fatigue.” These tensions within the European club include Hungary’s veto on Sweden’s entry into NATO after Turkey gave the green light.