European elections: three things that could change the ‘status quo’ in Brussels

This article was originally published in English

between 6 and 9 JuneSome? 373 million Europeans they will be called urn To choose 720 new depots of European Parliament. Elections show that traditional centrist forces are Under pressureMany voters may go the distance.

some people say MigrationHe climateThe AgricultureHe Business And this technology,

But much will depend on what happens on election night, and the negotiation of political power after the vote. ‘Euronews’ breaks Three aspects to get attention in the elections.

1. The rise of the extreme right?

Far-right forces are campaigning on promises to do little immigration, Back In Action against climate change and return sovereignty European nations are seeing a surge in their support in all corners of the continent.

In the European Parliament, far-right forces unite to form two groups: the nationalists European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which includes Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS), and the far-right Identity and democracy ,

‘Euronews’ super survey predicts that between the two they can insure themselves 20% of all seats The radical right is also on track to win votes in about six member states of the next European Parliament, including Belgium, France and Italy.

But Correct the European Parliament has deep splitdisorganized and distrusted by pro-European forces. Even if the poll predictions hold on election night, these parties will have to Find the unit If they want to expand their newfound influence on the EU stage.

Italian Giorgia Meloni has been portrayed as a key player in the elections, while her more moderate peers fight for her support. First, Ursula von der Leyencandidates for People’s PartyEuropean (EPP) to chair The European Commissionis openly expressed Willingness to reach agreements with Meloniand can count on the support of his brethren legislators in Italy to secure a second term.

This is the reason Fury At the same time, France’s Marine Le Pen is also courting Meloni to unite right-wing forces in the European Parliament. Far-right coalitionThat could include parties without a political family currently in the European Parliament, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz.

Such a group can take Months to take shapeBut if these parties manage to look beyond their differences, they could potentially become a second political force in the European Parliament.

2. Will the center of the region remain?

For decades, the European Parliament has been able to pass legislation because European centrist parties have agreed to work together. PPE Centre-right, centrist Renew Europe And this Socialists and Democrats ,S&D) the centre-left has always won a comfortable majority of seats, and they have also Green For some key votes.

This does not mean that they always vote together on all legislative files, but they make Ad hoc coalitions To ensure that the work of Parliament as a co-legislator can proceed smoothly.

But polls predict that this coalition of parties will suffer losses More stress than ever before. Dissatisfaction with traditional ruling parties is leading more voters to look not only to the radical right, but also to the radical left.

According to the ‘Euronews’ super survey, Three majority groups in the European Parliament will continue to maintain Majority of seatsbut it is potential that’s the majority Smaller than everIn a sign that the midfield is losing appeal.

The trend is more pronounced in countries like FranceWhere the far-right National Rally has slowly but steadily built a solid voter base at the expense of traditional parties.

3. What will happen after one day?

The future of European Parliament And the EU institutions in general could depend on the outcome of the vote and on political negotiations in the weeks and months ahead. The outcome of the election should affect who will be the next president of the European Commission, the EU’s powerful executive arm.

Over the past decade, the bloc has tried to promote a system of so-called ‘Spitzenkandidaten,In which European political parties present a leading candidate to preside over the Commission.

with PPE More or less guaranteed to be the largest European political party at the end of election night, should its candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, secure first place Second period,

But An absolute majority of support is required among the new members of the European Parliament (EP) to secure a position, and this could prove difficult if his traditional allies turn their backs on him because of his Recent outlook for Meloni And authority is difficult.

There is a vote in parliament scheduled for september And it will be celebrated in secret. Some national delegations of von der Leyen’s own party, the Republicans, will vote against her.

But EU leaders could also choose to appoint A completely new candidateAs he did in 2019, meaning an unexpected face could also be parachuted into the EU’s most influential job.

The elections will also trigger a wider race for other senior positions in Brussels, such as President of the European Council (currently held by former Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel) and that Top diplomat At the head of the European External Action Service (EEAS).

The distribution of these tasks requires a delicate balance between gender, geographical representation and political affiliation. EU leaders are scheduled to meet twice in Brussels end of June To debate the election for the three positions.