European Union is holding its breath before the elections, extreme right wing may get a boost in France | European Elections 2024 | News

Under the disco lights of a Brussels hotel close to the heart of the European Union institutions, a conference of the far right on Thursday celebrated its achievements in the June 9 European elections. French Marine Le Pen, Dutch Geert Wilders, Italian Matteo Salvini and other ultra leaders analyzed their rise – which has shaken Europe – and devised a strategy to increase their power. Wilders sent wistful sentiments to Brussels with smiling photos posted on social media with his political brothers, before returning home to form the longest government ever…

Under the disco lights of a Brussels hotel close to the heart of the EU institutions, a conference of the far right on Thursday celebrated its achievements in the European elections of June 9. French Marine Le Pen, Dutch Geert Wilders, Italian Matteo Salvini and other ultra leaders analysed their rise – which has shaken Europe – and devised a strategy to increase their power. Wilders posted smiling photos with his political brothers on social media and sent distressed hearts to Brussels before returning home to form the most right-wing government in the Netherlands’ modern history. This is the dream of Le Pen, who has launched a major political battle that could upend the xenophobic, Europhobic far right in France, one of the EU’s essential engines and receptive to the Kremlin’s messages, if she wins early elections to topple President Emmanuel Macron after the electoral setback. The anxiety in Brussels is enormous.

The far right in Europe is no longer an anecdote. The results of the European Parliament elections a week ago have confirmed this. And despite the messages relentlessly sent in Community institutions that the center is opposing and that the far right is a diverse and divided group that will have difficulty forming a single bloc in the European Parliament, the truth is that a trend has been observed, they acknowledge with concern several European sources. “Finally, on issues that mark the future of the EU, such as the green agenda, everyone will vote together,” says a senior Community official, who requested anonymity in order to comment freely. He adds, “The EU has turned to the right, it has been doing so for some time, but what happened in the European elections shows that the common project, instead of expanding, as it has been doing so until now, may shrink.”

The far right forms (or supports) governments in eight member states: Hungary, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Sweden, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia. And they aspire to an unprecedented level of power in the Community executive, in a key legislature for the future of the European project and for their support of Ukraine in its war against Russia. They will have portfolios in the European Commission – which will be much more kaleidoscopic – and they are pushing for enough say on key issues to influence and set the Union’s agenda for the next five years.

It is not for nothing that support has grown in the European Parliament for ultra-, Eurosceptic (even Europhobic) and populist parties, such as Marine Le Pen or the Italian Giorgia Meloni, who could provide a counterweight to a Community executive and a Council of the EU more right-wing. The European elections have brought a storm in France, with the great victory of Le Pen’s National Rally; and in Germany, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the second political force despite scandals, in elections that have given Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats their worst result in history. The heart of the EU, the Franco-German tandem that runs the Community Club, has been touched. And that could weigh on the entire bloc.

“There are many outcomes in which incumbent governments are weakened by European elections, which are usually used to punish the executive,” says political scientist Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali. “But there is no precedent for this weakness to occur in the two largest members of the Community Club at the same time; and in both cases it has been due to the rise of the extreme right,” the expert highlights.

9-J elections were held on a national basis in most of the 27 member states of the Union. There is rarely a vote in a European key in a club in which it has not been possible to make it let’s give The European and in which participation was not high: 51%, slightly higher than in 2019. However, what happened in the elections, and even more so in the legislature which has been very successful – with important measures such as the recovery, the joint procurement of vaccines against Covid-19 or a long series of social measures, also shows that all levels of European politics are increasingly interconnected.

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Questions are already emerging about the future of Germany’s coalition government, for example. But what happened in France – and what could happen in legislative elections that Macron has launched as a mandate: “Either me or chaos” – could have reverberations across the Union, says Celia Berlin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

These echoes are already being observed. At the moment, the distribution of major positions of power in Community institutions is increasingly taking place, with leaders showing little appetite (for now) for political battles: they want to solve things as quickly as possible and position the EU as a symbol of stability in turbulent times. “They are weakening Macron, one of Europe’s most ambitious and experienced leaders, at a time when the EU needs to demonstrate that it has a future in the face of Russian aggression, American hesitation and Chinese competition,” says Berlin. “France’s departure from the liberal centrist camp of Weimar to the nationalist camp led by the Italian Meloni will fundamentally change the balance of power in Europe towards a decentralized, disjointed and disintegrated future,” says the expert in an analysis.

The prospect of a far-right and Europhobic government in France and fears of instability in the union’s second-largest economy had already weighed on French markets on Friday. In Brussels, where what happens in Paris is the focus of almost all conversations, some diplomats recall the move of British David Cameron when he promised in 2003 to call a referendum on the United Kingdom’s separation from the European Union, which materialized in 2016 and led to a painful Brexit divorce four years later. One European diplomat says there is no fear that France will leave the Community Club, or that it will end it abruptly, but rather that it will break the common EU project at a crucial point.

If the far-right wing of Marine Le Pen and her Dolphin Jordan Bardella advances – but does not win – a parliament without a majority could weaken France’s position in the EU. If they win and coalesce, a government of the National Regrouping – with French ultra ministers in councils in Brussels, where they would coincide with ministers from Wilders’ coalition and Orbán – could block many EU initiatives, reduce support to Ukraine, block new trade agreements, disrupt environmental policies and undermine prospects for enlargement. It could also put an end to Community defence projects (to which the Community Club is moving) and dynamit the capital market. In addition to focusing on removing power from Community institutions and promoting an ultranationalist agenda.

But even if the far-right does not form the next French government this summer, the results will make united and decisive EU action on issues such as the green transition much more difficult. This is all happening in a more challenging and competitive global environment, warns Fabian Zuleg of the European Policy Centre think tank. “Any decline in the EU’s effectiveness could have devastating effects,” he says.

The earthquakes in Germany and France on Sunday could also be an appetite stimulant before other elections, which are almost more important for Europe than the elections that constitute the EU’s house of democracy: the United States presidential elections in November. The victory of Donald Trump, a populist Republican with ties to the European far-right, who has already called into question NATO’s security umbrella, which will deepen the trade war with China and shake up the global geopolitical chessboard, could further weaken and divide the EU. In addition, lead to a political scenario in which the West puts pressure on Ukraine to negotiate a cessation of the conflict – the most militants begin to require negotiations, with which, in fact, demand the surrender of Kiev – in a way that could be bad not only for the invaded country itself, but for the entire Union, having a neighbor with great imperialist appetites.

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