Failure of the Conservative Party in local elections in England

In the last elections before the general elections, the Conservative Party lost hundreds of local posts in England this Thursday and suffered one of its worst defeats in a Parliament seat, which was up for grabs.

Preliminary results indicate that Tory They may lose up to 500 places among mayors, councilors and police commissioners. The overwhelming majority of voting took place in England, and included London, Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham, although some police commissioner positions were also voted on in Wales.

“This is one of the worst, if not the worst, local elections in the last 40 years,” its polling analyst Professor John Curtice said on BBC4 radio this Friday. With the results available, they believe the Conservatives will lose up to 500 seats in this partial vote, half of the seats they held and were in dispute.

Furthermore, thinking about national elections, the Conservatives’ most worrying defeat against the Labor Party came from Blackpool South in the north of England, where support was Tory

It has sunk by more than 30 points. Curtis points out that this is the third largest shift from the Conservative vote to the Labor vote since the Second World War. This is the fifth special election – held to replace a deputy between election cycles – in which Labor wins after leading by more than 20 points, something which is now in line with the gains seen in national polls. The Conservative candidate finished second, but only a hundred votes away from third, his rival from Reform UK, the far-right group that is the successor to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and which is up 10 points compared to 2019.

thermometer

Local elections are not predictive of what might happen in general elections because participation is much lower and there are more parties that are represented, such as the Liberal Democrats, Greens and independent groups. But these give some indication of the mood of the country at this time.

“We have to remember that local elections generally don’t tell us much about what to expect from general elections,” Sophie Stowers, a UK academic researcher at the Changing Europe think tank, explains to elDiario.es. “But we can use them as a general thermometer of the popularity of parties in a region.”

Beyond criticism of the national government’s management, local councils are suffering from the decline of public services following 14 years of cuts in public spending, which in England and Wales are largely dependent on the London government. One in five councils in England is on the verge of defaulting on payments and 65% have less public support than a decade ago. Birmingham, with more than one million residents, became the largest city in Europe to declare bankruptcy in 2023.

Labor and Gaza

Despite Labour’s victory across England, there are also some signs that support for the party has waned in majority Muslim areas following Keir Starmer’s hesitation to call for a ceasefire in Gaza (this is now the official position of the Labor Party). Labor councilors in Oxford and other cities left the party in protest.

In some cities, the beneficiaries appear to be, in part, greener, according to preliminary results. “Not only have they gained seats, but their vote percentage has also increased compared to last year,” he said. Curtis says he could surpass his best results in 2019. For him, in any case, the news of the day is clear: “The main message of the polls is that the Conservative Party remains in deep electoral crisis.”

The election decision now rests with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has until December 17 to make an announcement. The Conservatives, who celebrate two years in office this autumn, have said elections will be held in the second half of this year.