Far from reducing, CO2 emissions from burning oil, gas and coal have reached a new high

Despite the urgent need to cut CO2 emissions to combat climate change, there is still no sign that they have peaked: emissions will continue to rise into 2024, according to scientists at the Carbon Budget Project. Behind this growth is the burning of oil, gas and coal – fossil fuels.

In fact, greenhouse gas emissions caused by these fossils have reached their record this year: 37.4 gigatons, or 0.8% more than in 2023. This means that, although other smaller sources of CO2 are also included (such as those that come from changes in land use), the total amount flowing into the atmosphere this year will increase. Tackling climate change requires doing exactly the opposite of what the science indicates: reducing emissions.

This data comes as delegations from nearly 200 countries are meeting in Baku (Azerbaijan) for the COP29 climate summit. The summit was held for the third time in a row in the Petrostate and in a country whose President Ilham Aliyev said at the opening that “oil and gas are a gift from God.”

Already in 2009, when signing the Copenhagen Accord, the world acknowledged that “deep cuts” in gas emissions were needed to “limit global temperature rise to well below 2 °C”. In fact, this is the core of the fight against climate change.

global carbon cycle

Anthropogenic flows 2014-2023 average GtC0₂ per year

C0 increase₂ atmospheric

absorption

From

land

absorption

From

ocean

soil, vegetation

and permafrost

stores of

natural gas, oil

and coal

fossil emissions

release gases

greenhouse effect

shore, sediment

superficial, carbon

biological, marine biota,

inorganic carbon

Dissolve

imbalance

Budget

Graphic: Ignacio Sanchez. Source: Carbon Budget Project.

global carbon cycle

Anthropogenic flows 2014-2023 average GtC0₂ per year

C0 increase₂ atmospheric

absorption

From

land

absorption

From

ocean

soil, vegetation

and permafrost

stores of

natural gas, oil

and coal

fossil emissions

release gases

greenhouse effect

shore, sediment

superficial, carbon

biological, marine biota,

inorganic carbon

Dissolve

imbalance

Budget

Graphic: Ignacio Sanchez. Source: Carbon Budget Project.

In 2019, an assessment by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) found that, when it comes to reducing emissions, the years that have passed could be described as a “lost decade”. And it calculated that these emissions would need to be reduced by 50% over the next 10 years to comply with the Paris Agreement. The opposite is happening.

Since 2019, the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere has declined only in 2020 due to the Covid 19 crisis. Since then, global emissions have increased year on year to more than the previous peak, as shown in the Carbon Analysis Budget Project. Increases in emissions from oil, gas and even coal have marked this upward trend.

“There is no sign that fossil fuel use is reaching a peak, while the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic,” says researcher Pierre Friedlingstein of the Exeter Global Systems Institute. And he warns that “time is running out.”

global CO emissions₂ of fossil origin

Estimated growth +0.8%

gigatons of CO₂

Estimated for 2024

non-fuel emissions

Source: Carbon Budget Project.

global CO emissions₂ of fossil origin

Estimated growth +0.8%

gigatons of CO₂

Estimated for 2024

non-fuel emissions

Source: Carbon Budget Project.

In this sense, Pep Canadell, chief researcher at the Australian CSIRO, has calculated that “we have six years of emissions left at this level to exhaust the carbon budget that would allow us to keep the planet’s excess warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.” Will give.” ”, according to what he said at a meeting of journalists at the Science Media Center (SMC).

This means that, according to scientific calculations, at this rate of emissions, in just six years from now humanity will have vented more gases into the atmosphere than it could afford if it wanted to limit temperature rise by the end of the century. The planet’s temperature was 1.5°C. Because this is how climate inertia works after CO2 is added to the atmosphere and because this warming limit allows us to avoid the most harmful effects of climate change.

natural sink, essential

In absolute terms, if the European Union and the United States have reduced their emissions, India and to a lesser extent China have increased their emissions. The two Asian powers have used more coal than a year ago. Additionally, international aviation has driven an increase in oil-based emissions and analysts believe “this will continue to increase.”

Another aspect that this work addresses – involving 119 researchers from 86 institutions and 19 countries – is that of natural carbon sinks. Forest, soil and ocean meet swallow Half of CO2 is caused by current models of human production and consumption. A capacity that may diminish as global temperatures continue to rise. The problem of balancing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and achieving the goal of climate neutrality in the world by 2050. That is, as much CO2 is emitted, the same amount is absorbed.

“We cannot replace the ability to absorb CO2 from natural sinks with technology. by no means. We cannot build infrastructure industrially to maintain 20% or even 10% of emissions and natural sinks eat up 50%,” Canadell warned.