Formula 1 market turns red after Wolff’s Verstappen claims

Toto Wolff, Mercedes Team Principalhas never hidden the fact that he wants to sign Max Verstappen. And this year, taking advantage of the difficult situation the team found itself in due to the Horner affair and the difficult relationship between the driver’s father, Jos Verstappen, and the team principal, Austrian Christian Horner has stepped up his public statements regarding the Dutchman and his interest in the reigning champion.

Last week, when Max Verstappen said at the Red Bull Ring that he would stay with Red Bull in 2025, Wolff was quick to question it. “Did you really say that?” And so a folder that seemed closed was opened wide again.

Horner was quick to respond, calling Wolf’s words “tactics.” “Max has been very clear. But of course, if he wants Verstappen next year, then I think Jos Verstappen (Max’s father) is available.”“The Red Bull team boss responded. Meanwhile, team adviser Helmut Marko said that Wolff’s desire to sign Max was more of an “illusion.”

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Fabio Marchi

And a few days later, Wolf, MD, left that door open again. “Leclerc will be a Ferrari driver until 2028. And as for Verstappen… you really don’t know. So we keep our options open.”– he said to this newspaper.

“I think it’s most likely that Verstappen will stay at Red Bull in 2025, as he said. But that doesn’t mean things can’t change.”“,” he added, leaving the situation in limbo again.

Is it possible that Max Verstappen will sign for Mercedes?

Both Helmut Marko and Wolff got one thing right. The way Red Bull can ensure Max is there in 2025, beyond the fact that he has a contract, is to show him that they will still have a winning car in 2025. At the start of the year, it seemed that way. But now McLaren have caught up with Red Bull, and Mercedes are close and have been able to fight for wins in a very fast car in some of the last rounds.

Wolff knows that the only way to keep Max at Red Bull at the moment is to keep winning titles next year. Knowing that you have the best car to win. So it’s no surprise that in MD Austrian assures that the priority now is to create a winning car.

This is the best or only possible hook.

“We are not waiting for a racing driver. I admit, we have never done that. The main focus at the moment on our part is to have the fastest car. If we have a faster car, I think Lewis and George will be able to compete at the front this year, and whoever it is next year, whether it’s Kimi Antonelli, Max Verstappen or whoever… that’s our duty and that’s our responsibility. That’s something that’s within our control.”Toto Wolff objected to this newspaper.

And Helmut himself warned about this a few days ago: ““The starting position is the same, as long as Red Bull can provide him with a competitive car and he feels comfortable, there is no reason to change teams.” The question then becomes: if Verstappen sees that Mercedes can give him a winning car in 2025, what will he do? Will he stay if Red Bull ends the year without a better car on the grid and Mercedes are on his level? Perhaps this is the key to Wolff’s aforementioned line: “That doesn’t mean nothing can change.”

For this reason, Wolff makes it clear that he wants to wait: “I don’t want to make a quick decision. I want to wait as long as possible to see how Kimi Antonelli develops and what’s happening in the driver market.”

Verstappen and his doubts

It is important to take into account the previous analysis in order to understand and be able to read between the lines of Verstappen’s answer a week ago in Austria. He needed three questions, the last one very direct, to make his future clear.

First they asked Max if he would continue to ride for Red Bull, and he drove through the hills of Ubeda: “Of course, people always say. The most important thing is to have a competitive car of the future. The grid is getting tighter now, but we are working hard to get even better and the team is already focused on being competitive next year.” If you noticed, Max was pointing to the key already mentioned: it tells him that he needs a winning car.

They asked him again: “And if your car is not the fastest at the end of the season, will you be able to leave?”

“Formula 1 doesn’t work like that where you can just pick it up and say goodbye. I have a long-term contract with the team, I’m happy and we’re already focusing on what we can do in the car for next year (2025), so I think that should give you a hint of where I’ll be next year.” he added.

And finally, he was asked if he would continue: “Didn’t you get that from my answer earlier? Aha! I already told you we’re working on next year’s car.and when you focus on this time, it’s because you’re going to be participating in them next year.

Given this, and the fact that Max Verstappen is under contract with Red Bull until 2028, the Dutchman’s case should remain closed. But according to Wolff, “With Max, you really don’t know…”

Maybe you know more and can’t say it. Or maybe, as Horner says, it’s a simple strategy to keep healing the wounds of your biggest rivals.

And Sainz? What should you do?

On the other side of all this is Carlos Sainz, who is looking for a seat for 2025. Logically, now driving for Ferrari, his desire would be to continue the fight for victories with Mercedes or Red Bull, but those doors are not yet open. For that to happen, there has to be a movement like Max’s. They have to wait. But if he falls asleep while waiting, it could be too late for Carlos.

The decision Sainz must make is not an easy one. Williams, Alpine and Sauber (Audi in 2026) want him. And, in turn, It’s unclear whether there will be a seat available at Red Bull if Verstappen leaves or if “Checo” Perez does not improve his performance after the extension. And as the Mexican admitted, if there is a team where contracts mean little, it is Red Bull, because “here you have to earn everything that comes to you, you have to earn it on the track.”

And on the other hand there is Mercedes. TOto Wolff made it clear to MD that he would like Carlos Sainz to wait longer and that “Carlos still gives an opportunity.” And that’s what If the star-studded team fails to sign Verstappen, Wolff may have to choose between young Kimi Antonelli, who is still exploding in Formula 2 and may need more filming, or Carlos Sainz.

But For this to happen, Carlos will have to wait without any guarantees. A very risky bet, because if you wait too long and the doors of Mercedes and Red Bull don’t open, which seems difficult, it may be too late and you may be left without the seats that are now waiting for you in Williams, Alpine or Audi (Sauber).

If Carlos wants a seat now, Williams offers a mid-range car that has sunk in recent weeks. Alpine looks to have improved in the points race. And there is some doubt about what to know if Alpine I will install the engine Mercedes in 2026. Williams yes, that will be the case, and that could be a very positive thing, because in the paddock Rumors suggest that this engine will be an aircraft engine. The idea in both cases would be to be able to continue to shine in the mid-table while waiting for market opportunities on big teams to open up again in the future with a contract that could allow such an exit.

And finally, there is an opportunity Audi, which means racing at the back of the grid alongside Sauber in 2025, but will lead a long-term project with the historic brand from 2026. (the first time Audi will compete in Formula 1), something that Alunni Bravi, Sauber’s chief representative in the paddock, pointed out to MD a few weeks ago that Sainz should see this as a great opportunity to become a fundamental pillar of something historic.

“We know it’s not an easy task, but it’s also an opportunity to build a winning team together and be an active part of that process as an important element. That’s what we offer our riders.”“,” the Italian told MD, referring to Carlos and the fact that in 2025 he will have to drive an uncompetitive Sauber, far from podiums and, perhaps, points.

But Audi also creates a lot of uncertainty: no one in Formula 1 can guarantee that this project will be a winner. Audi could never achieve this with big money and the desire to create such an iconic and winning brand as the German one. If this were history, Ferrari would win. And according to the project, Aston Martin would also win. But it is not so.

In Formula 1 it takes many years to win and build a champion team. Carlos knows this and he wants to spend the best years of his career fighting at the top.