France: Far-right dominates first round of parliamentary elections

According to projections, the far-right National Rally party (RN, French acronym Rassemblement National) won a historic victory in the first round of parliamentary elections held this Sunday in France.

According to survey data provided by France Television and Radio France after the election ended, Marine Le Pen’s party RN won about 33% of the vote.

The left-wing New Popular Front coalition reached almost 28% of the vote. And President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition, Ensemble, won about 21%.

Once the first results were known, Le Pen addressed her supporters.

“Democracy has spoken and the French have put the RN and its allies on top, practically destroying Macron’s camp,” he said.

He said people clearly want to “turn the page” Seven years of contemptible and corrosive government” and asked his supporters to vote again for the RN in the second round next Sunday.

President Macron, who unexpectedly called these parliamentary elections after the results of the European elections last month, which were also positive for the RN, explained that a front must be formed Defeat the far right,

“You have to vote for the Republican and Democratic candidates,” he said, referring to the second round.

The French president praised the massive participation in this Sunday’s elections, which according to several reports is the highest in the last 40 years.

The parliamentary elections in France, which define how the National Assembly is formed, consist of two electoral rounds. The second will take place next Sunday and will ultimately define the French political landscape.

Macron once again said that whatever the result of the election will not resign from the post of PresidentWhose term is ending in 2027.

The National Group had never before won the first round of a parliamentary election in the country.

In the last parliamentary elections, that is, in 2022, they got 18.7% of the vote in the first round – 15% less than this Sunday.

But this historic victory does not mean the fight is over.

In these elections, 577 deputies to the National Assembly are elected, who will hold office for 5 years (or less, if the President dissolves the Assembly, as happened in this case).

To select them, the country has been divided into two parts 577 constituencies and in each one deputy is elected.

For a candidate to win his or her constituency in the first round, he or she must receive more than 50% of the vote.

If no candidate is successful, the election goes to a second round, in which the two candidates with the most votes in the first round compete and all other candidates who have received 12.5% ​​or more of the registered population vote in the constituency.

i.e, There may be constituencies in which more than two candidates are competing in the second round,

According to Paul Kirby, Europe digital editor at the BBC, “each constituency has its own political history.”

“RN could win a few of them tonight and stay ahead of most others,

“However, the Left alliance also performed very well.”

In their reactions to the results of this Sunday, President Macron and some other leaders of the center and left had already called for Vote tactically next Sunday to oust far-right RN candidates,

Former left-wing presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who heads one of the parties that is part of the New Popular Front coalition, said: “We will not let the National Rally win anywhere.”

“That is why, in cases where we come third, we will withdraw from the race,” he said.

Gabriel AttalThe current Prime Minister of France (along the lines of President Macron) made a statement to the same effect.

He announced that the Macron-led coalition’s candidate, Ensemble, who received enough votes to participate in the second round but have no chance of winning, would withdraw to give the non-RN candidate a chance to win.

He added, “Our aim now is to prevent the RN from obtaining an absolute majority and running the country with its destructive project.”

President Macron will name a new prime minister when the final results are in next Sunday. Traditionally, the head of the party or coalition that wins the most seats in the assembly is elected.

If the National Group succeeds in obtaining an absolute majority on next Sunday, it is to be expected that the Chairman of that party, Jordan Berdellabecomes the prime minister.

Bardella is a 28-year-old politician who has spent his career since the age of 16 very close to Marine Le Pen and succeeded her as party president when she ran for president in 2022.

After the preliminary results this Sunday, Bardella confirmed that the country has two paths: “the worst” – that of the left coalition, which he described as “an existential threat” – and that of his party.

However, he added that he would be the Prime Minister for “all French people” and would respect them Cohabitation with President MacronThis is a phenomenon that occurs when the party leading in Parliament is not the same as that of the President.

In her statement this Sunday, Marine Le Pen said: “We need an absolute majority so that Jordan Bardella can be appointed prime minister within a week.”

However, polls by France Télévisions and Radio France predict that RN will win after next Sunday’s elections Between 230 to 280 seats They need far less than the absolute majority of 289 in the assembly that Le Pen talks about.

In any case, the current prime minister, Gabriel Attal, said that the extreme right in France is “At the Gates of Power”,

Analysis by BBC Paris correspondent Hugh Schofield

The far-right National Rally has scored a new victory and is on the right track toward its goal of overturning French politics.

There will be much talk in the coming days about centre and left-wing candidates who will withdraw from the second round in order to concentrate the anti-RN vote.

But the only conclusion that can be drawn from this first round of elections is that it would take a massive blow to overturn it, which is The RN is now the undisputed dominant political force in France.

However, what remains to be decided in the coming week is very important.

This is the difference between a far-right government having a free hand because of an absolute majority in the National Assembly and a far-right government unable to do much because the Assembly is divided.

To limit the damage, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist forces and the leftist New Popular Front coalition He will ask his supporters to vote smartly In the second round, on July 7. Even if their own candidate is eliminated, voters will be urged to choose whoever faces RN in their constituency.

But the problem with these types of party orders is that people pay little attention to them.

The disappearance of the shame that accompanied the vote for RN has been a long process, but it can undoubtedly now be concluded.

Another difficulty for RN’s opponents is the high number of so-called triangular votes in the second round, i.e. constituencies where next Sunday not two but three candidates will face each other. Usually, one from the center, one from the far right and one from the left.

The reason for the higher number of triangular votes is the higher turnout, which in turn results in higher stakes.

This is also because the lightning campaign made it impossible for smaller parties to reach an agreement, so the vote was concentrated in three blocks.

Obviously, if there are three parties competing in a constituency, it is more difficult to consolidate the anti-RN vote. Many places will have centre-left or left-wing candidates, but not all.

Overall, the country is now trapped in the sense that a victory for the far right is inevitable. What was once seen as an unimaginable possibility is now a concrete fact.

This frustrates and angers many people, especially in big cities like Paris, where a mountain of sadness hangs over us.

In the rest of the country, in rural areas, people probably feel the opposite.

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