France: How does Macron’s risky electoral gamble test democracy in the European country?

And the risks do not have to do with hopes that are lost or political careers that are cut short, as would be the case in a functional democracy in peace time, but with actual violence.

,In France, we’re jumping into the unknownsays veteran French political analyst Nicolas Baverez.

Two weeks ago, following his defeat in European Parliament elections against the far-right, Macron surprised the country by calling early elections.

“France needs a clear majority in peace and harmony,” he said.

It seems the French leader thought a lightning campaign would discourage voters from flirting with “extremists” and return a centrist majority to the National Assembly.

But many people believe that did not calculate correctly,

And there is a high possibility that the composition of the lower house will give strong support to the opposition, which may lead to the replacement of the Prime Minister.

The far-right organization National Rally (RN, from its French acronym: Rassemblement National), led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, remains far ahead in the polls, while a left-wing coalition – whose main actor is La France Insoumise, a far-left group – appears in second place.

The most likely outcomes point to an absolute majority of the RN – and therefore, a far-right government – ​​or a parliament without a majority, which would translate into paralysis.

Bardella, who at 28 is the RN’s leader, told voters that his party was “the only credible option” to respond to France’s aspirations.

He highlighted the organization’s plans to address Cost of living crisis, focusing on immigration and law and order,

“We are ready to rule”, he assured. And that is it Hoped to be the next Prime Minister of France If the RN becomes the largest party in the National Assembly.

That party wants to restrict immigration by abolishing the right to nationality –Droit du Sol– For anyone who has lived on French soil for at least five years between the ages of 11 and 18.

Presenting his nationalist credentials, Bardella said the most sensitive jobs in defence and security would be restricted to French citizens, excluding those with dual nationality.

In the current context, Bavernez sees three risks: first, a French sovereign debt crisis, as markets challenge the government; second, street violence, and third, institutional collapse.

“Our Fifth Republic was created to help us overcome crises. But we are in a very unstable situation. “Citizens are lost because the president himself is lost, so we can have a brutal destruction of institutions.”

All of France appears to be aware that the country is at a dangerous crossroads.

“When Macron called the election on the night of the European elections, I called my kids and said: ‘They realize we live in a historic moment“,” says Juliette Vilgrain, a candidate for Macron’s coalition party Horizons in the Seine-et-Marne department in the north of the country.

“People know that violence is a possibility. People are angry and frustratedand there are politicians who will call for violence. It’s manipulative, but that’s the way it is.”

Macron has hinted at the possibility of “civil war”, saying it was the logical conclusion of the far-right and far-left programmes.

His words in a podcast on Monday have been interpreted as an attempt to scare voters toward the center, but according to Beveridge, that’s very wrong.

“It is very dangerous for them to use this word and try to save their power by using fear. In a democracy, when fear is played with, hatred and violence arise,” he says.

Macron’s interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said authorities were working under the assumption that violent protests could occur on the nights of the first and second rounds (June 30 and July 7).

The nightmare scenario would be a victory for the RN that would provoke calls for demonstrations from the extreme left, which would then turn violent and involve people of immigrant origin who live there. restrictionsAs the suburbs are known.

The far-left LFI has a large support base restrictions and has made his support for Gaza one of his main campaign issues.

How political instability might affect the Olympic Games, scheduled to be held from July 26 to August 11, is one of the issues the president has not addressed.

,France is going through its populist moment” says Beverez.

“The United States and the United Kingdom dealt with Trump and Brexit ten years ago. “France survived because of the strength of our institutions, as well as the umbrella of the euro.”

“Being in the euro means that governments here can do what they always do: buy social peace by increasing public debt. Well, that’s over now.”