French elections: First estimates show surprise victory for leftists

First estimates predict a surprise victory for a left-wing coalition in the second round of French parliamentary elections.

The French would have stayed for the far-right National Rally party (RN, for its acronym in French), led by Marine Le Pen, when it was on the verge of power in the first round.

Main polls have projected the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, as the clear winner, though no group will have a majority in the legislature: Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition would come second based on the number of delegates, with the far-right coming in third.

It was the second round of an early parliamentary election that Macron had suddenly called a month earlier.

After the National Rally performed well in the first round, left-wing or centrist candidates in several places withdrew from the race, a strategy intended to allow the anti-RN vote to concentrate on a single contender, and which would have turned out to be a success if the vote had been confirmed.

But who constitutes the New Popular Front?

The New Popular Front is a coalition of socialists, environmentalists, communists and Indomitable France formed after President Macron called early parliamentary elections for 9 June.

These parties have criticised each other before and have some major differences in their ideology and approach, but They decided to form a bloc to keep the extremists out of the government.

The NFP promises to repeal the pension and immigration reforms passed by the current government, create a rescue agency for undocumented immigrants, and facilitate visa applications.

He also wants to cap the price of basic products to tackle the cost-of-living crisis and raise the minimum wage.

But, Since there is no absolute majority in Parliament, it is still unclear who will rule.

Much will depend on the balance of power within the NFP. Its constituent groups range from social democrats to hard-core capitalists. Some moderate socialists might be tempted to break away and join Macron’s group to form a centre-left government.

If a functional majority cannot be cobbled together, President Macron may ask the largest party to lead a minority government.

Alternatively, you could appoint a technocratic government, but this is unlikely to last long.

Further instability could ensue, particularly as the president cannot call new parliamentary elections for another year.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Insoumise, the most influential of the winning left-wing coalition, reacted by urging President Macron to “accept his defeat”.

“Tonight the far right is far from a majority … The election result is the fruit of an extraordinary mobilization effort,” Mélenchon said.

Macron, for his part, is “analyzing the results,” according to a presidential statement, and is not expected to make a statement on Sunday night.

The current Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, intervened before the media and announced that, since the government coalition has not achieved a majority, he will submit his resignation this Monday.

Marine Le Pen’s party also did not take long to react to the first estimates.

“Our victory has only been postponed,” the French extreme right leader said, ensuring that she sees “the seeds of tomorrow’s victory in today’s result.”

Le Pen, who has run for president three times without winning, also weighed in on President Macron’s position It is not durable.

For his part, his political dolphin, the young Jordan Bardella, who hoped to become the new Prime Minister of France, criticized the “dishonest coalition” of the left that “deprived the French” of the RN’s victory.

He said, “Tonight, these alliances throw France into the arms of the extreme left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.”

Analysis by Hugh Schofield from Paris

The French have made it clear again: they do not want the far right in power.

He led them to a big victory in the European elections; he led them to another big victory in the first round of these parliamentary elections.

But when the actual votes are counted – as in presidential elections -, They returned back.

This surprising turnaround which has put the National Group (RN) in third place – with perhaps 150 seats compared to the nearly 300 predicted a week ago – is entirely due to the huge numbers of voters who have come out to stop them.

The RN would argue – for some reason – that This was only possible because other parties united to game the system.

They highlight how very disparate parties of the left suddenly forgot their differences to form an anti-RN coalition; and how Macron’s followers and the left also forgot their followers.

They also point out that nothing unites these politicians like their opposition to RN. And this lack of consensus bodes poorly for the future.

But Facts are facts. Most people don’t like the far right; either because they oppose their ideas or because they fear they will bring instability if they come to power.

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