From a self-driving car in 2017 to a million “robotaxis” in 2020, will Cybercab be yet another of Elon Musk’s unfulfilled promises? | Technology

Last night, Elon Musk unveiled his Cybercab robotaxi prototype, a self-driving taxi (it has no steering wheel or pedals) with which Tesla intends to revolutionize urban mobility. In turn, he took advantage of everyone’s attention to predict when they will go on sale: “Probably, well, I’m not very optimistic about the timing, but in 2026. Until 2027, let me put it this way. “He stated this despite the fact that he does not yet have the necessary regulatory approvals to operate this type of vehicle. Meanwhile, San Francisco has had a robotaxi fleet called Waymo for some time.

Will he meet the deadlines he set for himself? This wouldn’t be the first time he didn’t arrive. In fact, the tycoon has a long history of exaggeration about everything related to his long-awaited autonomous car project, to which he has entrusted the company’s future: “Tesla’s value is overwhelmingly autonomy,” he said at a meeting with investors this summer. This technology is their big bet to leave behind traditional car companies and the Chinese electric vehicle makers that have achieved so much in recent years.

If Musk’s promises were realistic, self-driving Teslas would be on the streets as early as 2017. But seven years have passed and they are still not ready. Below we look at Musk’s other major failed predictions regarding Tesla’s self-driving cars.

Full autonomy in 2017. The world’s richest man first promised driverless cars in December 2015. At the time, he said he would develop cars “with full autonomy” by 2017. Nine years later, Teslas still require a driver, although they include a system that can take over control of the car, but always under human supervision: the driver must be willing to take control. In fact, this driving system has been responsible for several accidents, some fatal, in the US and China.

Driving without supervision in 2016. “Model S and Model

Able to drive around the city and park alone. That same year, Musk posted a video of a Tesla driving past his office. “Tesla drives itself (without any human intervention) through city streets, onto highways, and then back onto the streets and finally finds a parking spot,” the tycoon tweeted.

In 2018, during the trial over the accident, the company said the video was an “ambitious demonstration” of what Tesla would one day be capable of.

million robotaxis in 2020. “I’m very confident in predicting that there will be a self-driving robotaxi from Tesla next year,” he said in 2019. “Not in all jurisdictions because we won’t have regulatory approval everywhere. But I’m sure that we will get regulatory approval at least somewhere, literally next year.” Musk’s statement was accompanied by a number: he believed it was possible to flood the streets with millions of robotaxis.

Five years later, the tycoon has just unveiled a prototype of this car, which still does not have the necessary permits to circulate.

Floating Cybertruck and autonomy. When Musk unveiled the first prototype of his electric Cybertruck pickup truck in 2019, he said it would be available starting at $39,900 and would have a range of about 500 miles. Today, the cheapest version of this car costs at least $60,000 and can travel just over 500 kilometers without recharging the battery.

Besides its futuristic looks, the Cybertruck was sold with amazing features like indestructible windows (which Musk himself blew up live). Even more amazing was that the Cybertruck would be able to float for short periods of time while crossing rivers. At least that’s what Musk said.

Increasing autonomy is one of the biggest obsessions of electric vehicle manufacturers, as it is their main weak point compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. Musk is no stranger to this battle. “I think we can achieve 1,000 kilometers of autonomy in one or two years. I would say that by 2017 we will have it.” It has not yet exceeded 600 kilometers.

Other promises

Whether out of arrogance or marketing strategy, Musk is accumulating unfulfilled promises in many other areas:

Twitter will reach 1 billion users. He said this in November 2022, shortly after taking over the company. Today he has XXX.

An “app” for everything. Musk’s goal is to turn X into application where you can also buy, book tickets or perform many other tasks. So far, what he has added to Twitter compared to before he arrived is pornographic content and a lack of moderation.

Solve climate change. “SpaceX is launching a program to extract CO₂ from the atmosphere and turn it into rocket fuel,” he said in 2021.

Hyperloop in Chicago. In 2018, Musk announced at a joint press conference with the mayor of Chicago that he would build a tunnel about 30 kilometers long that would connect the city center with O’Hare Airport. The journey will be completed in 12 minutes on the Hyperloop, a bullet train project that was heralded in 2013 as a great revolution in long-distance travel and which never got off the ground, much like the tunnel.

Human colonies on Mars. In 2024, people will appear on the Red Planet. This was his prediction in 2014, when he also began saying that he wanted to build a self-sufficient city on Mars.